These days, I see everyone watching on-chain large transfers and fluctuations in exchange hot and cold wallets, interpreting "smart money."

Honestly, it's often just moving assets, market making, risk control adjustments—using it as a signal can easily scare or fool yourself.
The same goes for staking/sharing security; the layered returns look great, but the risks are stacking up too: penalties and confiscations at the underlying staking level, contract risks of upper-layer protocols, and the discomfort when liquidity tightens and gets stuck...
Anyway, I'm now more concerned with data: whether the collateral structure, penalty conditions, and exit paths are smooth or not.
When fantasizing about returns, it's wise to also consider "what's the worst that could happen," so your mindset stays stable.
What I don't regret is... before rushing in each time, I first reduce my position size, sleep on it, and then decide—at least when losing money, it’s not so embarrassing.