#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 April 14 Gold and Silver Analysis: U.S. and Iran Still Have Room for Negotiation, Gold Rebounds After Bottoming

01—
Market Review
According to reports from American media such as CBS and CNN, an American official stated that the U.S. and Iran are still in negotiations, and both sides are working to find a diplomatic solution to this conflict. “There is ongoing contact between the U.S. and Iran, and progress is being made toward reaching an agreement,” the official said. According to Russia’s TASS on the 13th, citing The Atlantic Monthly, the next round of “direct talks” between the U.S. and Iran may be held in Islamabad, Pakistan, on the 16th.

According to CME “Fed Watch”: The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1%, and the probability of holding rates steady is 99%. The probability of a total 25 basis point cut by June is 1.5%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 97.5%, and the probability of a total 25 basis point hike is 1%.
The world’s largest gold ETF—SPDR Gold Trust—held 5.227 tons less than the previous day, with current holdings at 1,047.192 tons.

The US dollar index has fallen for six consecutive trading days, breaking below the 99 level, closing down 0.25% at 98.42; the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.2930%, while the 2-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to Fed policy, slightly declined to 3.7830%.

On the chart, gold gapped lower at the open of the previous trading day, opening at $4,680 and dropping to a low of $4,638. After stabilizing, it rebounded from above $4,650, rallying directly to $4,740 during the Asian session before beginning to pull back. In the afternoon, it retraced to $4,708, then touched above $4,730, before pulling back again during the European session. Before the U.S. session, it dipped to $4,703, then surged to $4,735, only to retreat again to around $4,700. In the afternoon, it rose again, closing at $4,741, forming a bullish daily candle.

02—
Today’s View

The market decline was caused by the breakdown of U.S.-Iran negotiations. From the news this morning, both sides still leave room for maneuver, so a short-term rebound by the bulls is very normal. Gold remains the same, continuing to fluctuate, and this week’s focus will be on collective statements from Fed officials. Hawkish and dovish remarks will continue to influence short-term gold trends.

Technically, the daily chart shows continued oscillation between bullish and bearish signals, so there’s a probability of a bearish close on Tuesday. The rally within the $4,099–$4,850 range has ended, and a retracement to confirm support is expected. Even if new highs are reached again, a pullback will still occur—just a matter of timing. If there’s no decline this week, it will likely be a week of consolidation.

The weakening of the dollar was the main support for gold’s rebound after bottoming on Monday. On Tuesday, the gap has been filled, and the immediate resistance is at $4,760–$4,773, which could be considered a short-term short position. Support levels are at $4,700 and $4,680. The overall approach remains oscillatory—buy high and sell low, patiently waiting!

Regarding silver: The previous trading day showed strong performance, with resistance still at $76–$78, and support at $73.50 and $72.50. Continue to watch the range.

These are purely personal opinions and for reference only!