Is It Time To Reassess Maplebear (CART) After Its 12‑Month Share Price Slide

Simply Wall St

Tue, February 17, 2026 at 4:10 PM GMT+9 6 min read

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•                                       StockStory Top Pick 
  

  CART

  +9.21%

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If you are wondering whether Maplebear at around US$36.30 is a bargain or just fairly priced, you are not alone. A closer look at its valuation can help frame that question.

The stock has moved 3.3% over the last 7 days, while sitting on a 7.9% decline over 30 days and a 17.3% decline year to date, with a 28.8% decline over the past 12 months that may have changed how the market views its risk and return trade off.

Recent coverage has centered on Maplebear as a listed grocery delivery platform, with attention on how its business model stacks up against other consumer retail and logistics players. This context, along with the share price moves, has kept investors focused on what they are paying for its future potential.

On Simply Wall St's 6 point valuation checklist, Maplebear scores 3 out of 6 for being assessed as undervalued on half of the checks. Next, we will look at the usual valuation methods that sit behind this score before finishing with a more comprehensive way to think about what the market might be pricing in.

Find out why Maplebear’s -28.8% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: Maplebear Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model takes estimates of a company’s future cash flows and discounts them back to today using a required return, to arrive at an estimated intrinsic value per share.

For Maplebear, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about $905.1 million, and analysts and internal estimates project this to reach $1,256.9 million in 2030. For the years between 2026 and 2035, Simply Wall St combines analyst forecasts where available and then extrapolates additional free cash flow projections, all in dollar terms, before discounting them to today’s value.

On this basis, the DCF model produces an estimated intrinsic value of about $117.23 per share. Against a recent share price of around $36.30, this implies a 69.0% discount, which indicates that the stock is assessed as materially undervalued by this method.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Maplebear is undervalued by 69.0%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 54 more high quality undervalued stocks.

CART Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Maplebear.

Approach 2: Maplebear Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like Maplebear, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about what you are paying for each dollar of earnings. It ties the share price directly to current earnings, which many investors look to as a key anchor for valuation.

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What counts as a normal or fair P/E depends a lot on expectations and risk. Higher expected earnings growth or a business that investors see as relatively predictable can support a higher P/E, while lower growth expectations or higher perceived risk usually justify a lower one.

Maplebear currently trades on a P/E of 21.76x. That sits slightly above the peer average of 20.79x and a little below the broader Consumer Retailing industry average of 22.51x. Simply Wall St also calculates a Fair Ratio of 20.97x. This is a proprietary estimate of what P/E might be appropriate given factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and company specific risks. Because it blends these elements directly, the Fair Ratio can be more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or sector averages.

Set against the Fair Ratio of 20.97x, Maplebear’s current P/E of 21.76x screens as modestly higher.

Result: OVERVALUED

NasdaqGS:CART P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 23 top founder-led companies.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Maplebear Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives on Simply Wall St let you connect your view of Maplebear’s story to clear numbers by turning your own assumptions about future revenue, earnings and margins into a forecast. You can then compare the Fair Value that results from that forecast with today’s price, and your view is automatically updated as new earnings and news arrive. For example, one investor might build a bullish Maplebear Narrative that lines up with a Fair Value around US$66.00, while another might lean on a more cautious Narrative closer to US$36.00. You can explore these side by side on the Community page to see which story and set of numbers you find most reasonable.

For Maplebear however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Maplebear Narratives:

🐂 Maplebear Bull Case

Fair value in this bullish narrative: US$50.22

Implied pricing gap to this fair value: 27.7% discount to the narrative fair value at the recent US$36.30 share price

Revenue growth assumption in the narrative: 7.66% per year

Focuses on technology driven efficiencies and AI tools that are being used to support margins, order accuracy, delivery times and customer retention.

Highlights growing enterprise and advertising relationships, including Storefront Pro, Carrot Ads, Caper Carts and data products that are intended to add higher margin revenue streams beyond core grocery delivery.

Leans on analyst assumptions for mid single digit to high single digit revenue growth, higher profit margins and a future P/E of 21.79x, which together support a fair value estimate of about US$50.22.

🐻 Maplebear Bear Case

Fair value in this bearish narrative: US$36.00

Implied pricing gap to this fair value: 0.8% premium to the narrative fair value at the recent US$36.30 share price

Revenue growth assumption in the narrative: 3.52% decline per year

Emphasises risks around maturing online grocery penetration, thinner economics on smaller baskets and retailer pricing moves that could pressure take rates and margins.

Flags potential headwinds from ad spend moderation, higher labour and regulatory costs and increasing fixed costs from expanding software and AI offerings if revenue does not keep pace.

Builds to a fair value of US$36.00 using assumptions for revenue contraction, slightly lower margins and a future P/E of about 25x, which is tied to the lower end of current analyst price targets.

These two Maplebear Narratives sit on the same data but make different calls on how much growth, profitability and risk you think is realistic. If you want to see how other investors are framing those trade offs and compare their full assumptions side by side, have a look at Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives and see which story lines up best with your own view.

Do you think there’s more to the story for Maplebear? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

NasdaqGS:CART 1-Year Stock Price Chart

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include CART.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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