BTC struggles at the 70,000 level: whale short positions are floating with profits, is a second retest beginning?

Trade Direction and Positioning Suggestions 【No Position】 Strategy: Wait for a pullback and confirmation. You may try a small position for a quick rebound reversal around 67500 - 67800 (near MA120)

【Long Position】 Trade: Move the stop-loss up to 68000. If the price retraces back to around 69500 and fails to hold steady, it’s recommended to reduce exposure in advance to avoid a second bottom after TD9

【Short Position】 Strategy: Continue holding; take profit at 67500. If the price breaks out of 69600 on increased volume, you must cut losses decisively Key Levels: Resistance: 69400、70300 Support: 68100、67500

News Overview Macroeconomics and Geopolitics: Early panic triggered by Trump’s remarks about the Iran war has been partially digested, but his mentions of “building the strongest economy in history” and “pressure on the energy market” still keep the market maintaining high volatility expectations Institutions and Regulation: Morgan Stanley has filed the latest BTC ETF (MSBT) S-1 amendment, showing that traditional institutions are still steadily advancing their plans On-Chain and Large Holders: Ongoing sell pressure: In the past 24 hours, 5071 BTC have flowed into exchanges, and there have been two spot orders totaling over $6.9 million showing signs of “quiet distribution”

Technical Outlook (Based on 30 Minutes) Trend Pattern: After the price hit and failed at the 70309 high, it pulled back. It is currently consolidating around 68500 TD9 (red) top signal, followed by the market entering a gradual downward correction and repair phase Moving Averages: The price is currently below MA24 (purple, 69375) and MA52 (blue, 68608), indicating that near-term bullish momentum has temporarily exhausted. Strong support is near MA120 (green, 67735)

Risk Warning “Window dressing” risk: The giant whale short position is still not closed; be prepared for a sudden, high-volume sell-off after the price rebounds to a resistance level ETF data delay: If tonight’s ETF net outflow data comes in worse than expected, BTC may test the 66000 support

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