#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Non-farm data is remarkably impressive! However, Trump keeps jumping back and forth in the US-Iran "peace talks"; what will happen to Bitcoin and Ethereum? Market analysis and trading suggestions!

　　At 20:30 Beijing time on Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March non-farm employment report, showing a significant increase in employment, with the labor market improving notably due to the end of strikes in the healthcare sector and rising temperatures.　　
However, the overall employment environment remains nearly stagnant, and considering there are no clear signs of ending the war with Iran, the downside risk to the labor market continues to grow.
For the Federal Reserve, considering that inflationary pressures may gradually emerge, waiting and watching may continue to be the main policy stance in the near term.　　
The seasonally adjusted U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 178k in March, far exceeding the market expectation of 60k, reaching the highest level since December 2024, significantly improving from the previous month's "negative growth" of 92k, which was revised from -92,000 to -133k.　　
Meanwhile, the U.S. unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.3%, with market expectations remaining steady at 4.4%. The average hourly earnings in March grew at an annual rate of 3.5% and a monthly rate of 0.2%, both below the expected 3.7% and 0.3%, respectively; the previous values were 3.8% and 0.4%.　　
Following the non-farm report, the dollar index surged sharply, reaching a high of 100.1. Major non-U.S. currencies declined across the board, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD dropping nearly 30 points in the short term. Market pricing shows a decreased expectation of Fed rate cuts in 2026.　　
In cryptocurrencies, there was no significant volatility after the non-farm data release. This week, affected by Trump’s rhetoric, the US-Iran conflict has been fluctuating repeatedly. Bitcoin and Ethereum also experienced oscillations and repeated sideways movements.　
Generally speaking, focusing on one direction might be better, as trying to profit from both bullish and bearish moves simultaneously is not impossible but depends on personal preference.　　
In the short term, the market shows some correlation with US stocks. Technically:
Bitcoin and Ethereum are still operating within a downward channel on the major trend, which is undeniable. Overlaying smaller trends on the larger trend, after bottoming out on February 6 at the start of the year, the market has been correcting in a sideways pattern. The current correction is not enough to reverse the major trend. After the last big decline, the price experienced a broad sideways consolidation for about three months; currently, only two months have passed.　　
Once we understand that we are still in a consolidation cycle, short-term and medium-term trading should be planned according to individual capital, rather than speculating that a one-sided trend is coming!　
After understanding the major trend, we can then discuss the short-term direction and trend changes in detail!　　
In the short term, use this two-month consolidation range for analysis. There’s no need to look at larger ranges or trends, as those are mainly suitable for institutions like BlackRock, Grayscale, etc. During this consolidation, Bitcoin and Ethereum are both operating within the Fibonacci retracement zone of 0.618-0.5. This range is likely to be broken only during the weekend, probably late Sunday night or Monday morning, as prices continue to move and adjust indicators. The focus is on Bitcoin, and Ethereum will eventually follow Bitcoin’s trend!　　
Currently, Bitcoin is priced at $67,000, within the Fibonacci 0.618-0.5 zone. Short-term support levels are at $66,200–$66,000; resistance is at $68,000. Over the past two months, this range has given many the illusion of an imminent breakdown, but repeated non-breakouts have caused unnecessary short-term losses for many short-sellers. Trading with small stop-losses on long positions during this bottoming phase is the lowest-cost way to manage risk.　　
Ethereum may show some differences, partly due to the recent rise in the ETH/BTC exchange rate. Ethereum tends to make "injection" moves, and its current candlestick pattern is weaker than Bitcoin’s. The overall trading approach is synchronized. Ethereum is also operating within the Fibonacci 0.618-0.5 zone, which is very narrow. Short-term support is at $2015–$1900; resistance is at $2080–$2100.