Looking at how TLT is behaving—going down while yields are going up—this suggests there are still inflation concerns and that rates remain elevated. Most of the time, this does not signal an immediate recession, rather it points to a delayed recession.

Right now, we are essentially in the process of a soft landing versus a recession. However, even if uncertainty fades, inflation declines further, and we eventually get rate cuts and recession could still be inevitable, whether it happens now or later the risk doesn’t disappear—it may simply be delayed.
The scenario I currently lean toward is that we don’t get a recession in the near term, despite the consensus for a rate cut in April being around 85% amid FED intervention because if we were to see a resolution to the war this week, that consensus could quickly shift back toward no rate cuts, and the soft-landing narrative would likely regain momentum.
But it’s important to remember, it’s just a "soft landing narrative" that can dominate sentiment afterwards and that a recession will still happen, just not now.