# Short-Term Trading Plan for Crude Oil (As of March 16, 2026)

Based on the current market environment of strong bullish crude oil, geopolitical drivers, and high volatility at elevated levels, here is a trend-following with light position risk management trading plan with clear entry, take-profit, stop-loss, and position sizing.

## I. Market Overview (As of March 16)

- **Brent Crude**: Current price approximately $103.14/barrel, holding above $100, daily bullish trend, driven higher by geopolitical conflict (Strait of Hormuz)
- **WTI Crude**: Current price approximately $98.71/barrel, approaching $100, volume-driven rally creating new highs
- **Domestic SC Crude**: Current price approximately 789.5 yuan/barrel, gap-opening higher with strong breakout
- **Core Logic**: Geopolitical risk dominates near-term price action; high volatility at elevated levels; primary strategy is trend-following long positions; avoid countertrend shorting at top

## II. Short-Term Trading Plan (WTI as primary, Brent as reference)

### 1. Trading Direction: Trend-Following Long (Bullish Trend, Dip-Buy Strategy)

### 2. Entry Points (Two schemes adapting to different market conditions)

- **Conservative Dip-Buy (Preferred)**: $97.0-$97.5/barrel (retest short-term support, enter on stabilization)
- **Aggressive Chase (Secondary)**: $99.0-$99.5/barrel (trial position before $100 breakout, light position sizing)

### 3. Stop-Loss Level (Strictly enforced, non-negotiable)

- **Unified Stop-Loss**: $95.5/barrel
- **Logic**: Break below recent strong support invalidates bullish thesis; exit decisively; single-trade loss remains manageable

### 4. Take-Profit Levels (Two-tier, scale out, lock in profits)

- **First Take-Profit (Short-term)**: $101.5-$102.0/barrel (reduce 50% of position, secure profits)
- **Second Take-Profit (Swing)**: $104.0-$105.0/barrel (exit remaining position, align with geopolitical risk premium targets)

### 5. Position Management (Core Risk Control, Top Priority)

- **Single-Trade Risk**: ≤1% of total account capital
- **Position Size**: 10%-15% (high volatility at elevated levels; strictly prohibit heavy positions)
- **Principle**: Light trial positions; do not add on winners; do not add/average down on losers

## III. Key Disciplines (Non-Negotiable)

1. **No Chasing at High Levels**: Do not blindly add heavy positions chasing above $100; only dip-buy on retracements
2. **Pre-Set Stop-Loss**: Enter all stop-loss orders before trading; do not modify or cancel intraday
3. **Scale Out Strategy**: Exit 50% at first target to prevent profit give-back
4. **Monitor News Events**: Geopolitical escalation/de-escalation, OPEC+ statements, crude inventory data; reduce positions immediately on bearish catalysts

## IV. Risk Disclaimer

Crude oil is heavily influenced by geopolitical factors, policy, and supply/demand dynamics; short-term volatility is severe. This plan is a technical and fundamental-based short-term reference only and does not constitute investment advice. All trading profits and losses are the trader's sole responsibility. Strict risk management discipline is mandatory.