Trump Announces Airstrikes on Iran's Oil Export Hub; Crude Oil and US Dollar Surge Together—How Will the A-Share Market Perform Next Week? Three Key Points:

1. Two Most-Watched News Items Over the Weekend:

First, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released a statement to severely crack down on financial fraud and market manipulation and other illegal violations;

Commentary: Hong Kong's financial circle just experienced a massive shock, with the Independent Commission Against Corruption conducting surprise raids on insider trading and arresting 8 executives, involving 4 million yuan in bribes and 300 million yuan in insider trading;

Two Chinese securities company subsidiaries—everyone knows who they are now—Guotai Junan International and CITIC Securities both released announcements;

The A-share market also needs an anti-corruption storm. Those insider trading and short-selling market manipulation behaviors need to be severely punished;

For many institutions accustomed to disrupting market order in the A-share market, that won't fly in the Hong Kong stock market;

Second, the Middle East situation has reversed again. Trump posted that he would launch airstrikes on Iran's oil export hub, and the Middle East situation remains tense;

Commentary: Although the Strait of Hormuz already has tanker traffic, the current volume of smooth passage is extremely limited, and energy shortage pressure continues to increase;

Middle East conflict showed signs of escalation over the weekend, and international crude oil prices rebounded and rose again last night;

The surge in crude oil directly brings serious inflation expectation concerns. Central banks worldwide don't rule out the possibility of future rate hikes, which is bearish for financial markets;

2. What Are the Main Impacts of US Dollar and Crude Oil Rising Together?

First, if the US dollar index continues to strengthen and rise, the Federal Reserve rate cut expectations are compressed, capital flows out of emerging markets, and the impact on global financial markets may be relatively significant;

Second, the surge in crude oil prices triggers inflation expectations. In the short term, it may benefit oil, gas, and energy sectors, but long term it will cause inflation and increase costs;

Affecting macroeconomic conditions and central bank decisions, ultimately bringing more crises;

This is why whenever both the US dollar and crude oil rise, you can see risk-aversion concerns in financial markets rise immediately;

For the A-share market, Friday afternoon's plunge already says everything;

On one hand, there's concern about weekend uncertainties, with more worry about escalating conflict;

On the other hand, it's the emotional and confidence impact brought by both the US dollar and crude oil breaking through 100;

3. Will the A-Share Market Be Affected Next Week? Here's My Prediction:

The impact of short-term stock market sentiment won't change. Last night, the three major US stock indices also declined and adjusted. Recently, the US stock market overall is in a downtrend;

Next week, the A-share and Asia-Pacific stock markets may open lower. For the A-share market, if there's another bottom-fishing next week, the index is expected to be pulled up, but individual stocks will recover more slowly from the impact;

Next week is expected to be dominated by up-and-down volatile trading overall. The index is expected to rebound when approaching 4,050 points, and there's obvious pressure around 4,150 points;

Currently, energy stocks, new energy tracks, and tech sectors all show obvious seesaw effects;

Energy stocks haven't surged persistently. Even with oil prices surging, funds buying oil and gas sectors will remain concerned about war easing or ending at any time;

So oil, gas, and other energy sectors like chemicals will likely see gains followed by adjustment of divergence, but overall lean strong;

In the short term, if the Middle East conflict continues, energy and chemical sectors will benefit more, while tech and consumer sectors are subject to bearish pressure;

In the long term, we need to wait for the Middle East situation to stabilize, financial market volatility gradually decline, and capital confidence return to focus on repairs; #Gate广场AI测评官