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After the weekly settlement, BTC surged significantly and has now approached $74,000, nearing the upper bound of the oscillation range since February.
The options market has shown a muted reaction. BTC doomsday options' implied volatility remains below 50%, while ETH doomsday options' implied volatility remains below 70%, both lower than the implied volatility of major tenors.
In terms of trading volume, large bullish options trades account for less than 30% of total volume, concentrated in shallow out-of-the-money near month-end expiry. This is relatively low for a 5% price movement. The options market has not priced this rally well, with VRP rebounding but not turning positive. The market still believes volatility is overpriced.
Currently, the oscillation range has not been effectively broken. If the market can break through $75,000 over the weekend when liquidity is thinner, and decisively break out of the oscillation range, then a follow-through rally could materialize—but the difficulty is enormous.