The fantasy of 2-3 rate cuts this year has been completely shattered. The current realistic expectation is that the probability of no rate cuts or only one cut has skyrocketed to 78%. Just one month ago, this probability was only 25%. In just 30 days, market expectations have made a dramatic three-stage leap, instantly shifting from a frenzy of easing to a harsh winter of high interest rates! This is not a minor adjustment—it's a complete reversal of expectations! Sticky inflation, economic resilience, and geopolitical risks have delivered a triple blow, and Powell's hawkish stance has firmly pressed the rate cut button.