3.13 Midday Analysis

From a 5-minute candlestick structure perspective, gold prices today exhibit a rally-and-pullback trading pattern. During the early session, prices oscillated higher supported by the Bollinger Band middle band, with bullish momentum gradually releasing. The price probed as high as the 5128 level, approaching the strong resistance zone of the Bollinger Band upper band. Subsequently, bullish strength gradually exhausted, prices pulled back from the highs under pressure, and entered a downward oscillation trend. Currently, prices have retraced to around 5104, breaking below the Bollinger Band middle band support. Combined with short-term moving averages turning downward and diverging, short-term gold has likely entered a phase of high-level consolidation and weak oscillation.

From a news perspective, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains tense with continuous actions from the US and related parties, further elevating market risk-off sentiment and providing solid safe-haven support for gold prices. On the other hand, recent Federal Reserve officials have released increasingly hawkish rhetoric, stating they will maintain high interest rate policies unchanged. Combined with the US dollar index experiencing phases of strength, this creates significant headwinds for gold price appreciation. With conflicting bullish and bearish signals, gold overall maintains a high-level range-bound oscillation pattern.

Technical key levels: The Bollinger Band upper band resistance is currently at 5118, middle band resistance at 5110, and lower band support at 5103. Currently, prices have broken below the middle band and are near the lower band support, short-term moving averages have formed a bearish crossover, and MACD green columns continue to expand in volume, with bearish momentum slightly increasing. Key focus ahead: If prices effectively break below the 5103 lower band support, downside space will further open up. If the lower band support holds and prices stabilize back above the middle band, gold prices may return to an upward oscillation trend.

Trading Suggestions: Consider establishing long positions in batches in the 5085-5075 range, with initial targets at 5120 and 5175.