To be honest, in the past, no matter who told me "Bitcoin can reach 1 million USD," my first reaction was always: this guy is crazy again.

Usually, I spend every day analyzing market funding rates and doing swing arbitrage, so I am very cold-blooded about market capitalization calculations: currently, the world's largest store of value assets is gold, with about 36 trillion USD, while BTC is 1.4 trillion USD, accounting for only 4%. If BTC were to rise to 1 million dollars in this market cap, it would have to overthrow gold and take over more than half of the market. Is this realistic? No, it's not.
But today, after reading another article, I realized that I (including the vast majority of people) have made an extremely misguided mistake: we always compare BTC to the *static* gold.
We ignore a most terrifying macro fact: due to unlimited money printing and sovereign debt crises, the global "store of value market" itself is expanding wildly.
Think back: in 2004, gold's market value was only 2.5 trillion, and in just 20 years, it has expanded to nearly 40 trillion. Why? Because fiat currencies are rapidly shrinking, and demand for safe-haven assets is exploding.
Following this logic, do some quick math: if in the next 10 years, the global store of value pool expands to 120 trillion. At that point, BTC doesn't need to overthrow gold; it only needs to follow the trend and increase its market share from the current 4% to 17%, and the price would be 1 million USD.
Considering the current net inflows into Wall Street ETFs and the major sovereign funds starting to allocate 1%-5% of their holdings to it, climbing from 4% to 17%, is this still a pipe dream? This is an extremely conservative mathematical problem.
So, using small funds for Martingale strategies and arbitrage now is just to earn daily cash flow; but in the face of the big trend, our understanding must shift: a 1 million dollar Bitcoin isn't about overthrowing the world; it’s just about catching the part of the flood of fiat currency oversupply that it’s supposed to catch.