$USAR

President Trump and Xi Jinping are expected to meet in Beijing between March 31 and April 2, 2026. One of the most critical topics on the table will be export quotas on Rare Earth Elements #REE and supply chain security. If this meeting results in a clear agreement for China to fully or meaningfully ease its REE export restrictions for a prolonged period, stocks of domestic producers like USAR could also face short term downside pressure.
However, when we focus on the macro trends, the picture changes. Rare earth elements are some of the most essential building blocks behind massive technological transformations such as the space economy, AI data centers, and advanced defense hardware. In other words, these materials are the picks and shovels of today's most advanced technology revolution. USAR's magnet facility in Oklahoma and its Round Top mining project in Texas are being directly supported by the government to secure the U.S. domestic market. The clearest sign of this is the company's recent signing of a letter of intent tied to access to a massive $1.6B funding package with the U.S. government to accelerate the supply chain.
Diplomatic agreements may be short lived, but the need for domestic materials from chipmakers and energy infrastructure is structural.
A possible agreement headline could create immediate selling pressure in USAR. But I don't think that kind of pullback would damage the long term outlook