4 Trucking Stocks Worth Monitoring as the Industry Navigates Structural Pressures

The trucking sector is caught between compelling demand and stubborn supply challenges. While freight volumes continue climbing thanks to robust economic activity, the industry faces a perfect storm: persistent driver shortages, surging fuel costs, and margin pressures. Yet within this complex landscape, certain trucking stocks are positioned to capitalize on strong freight demand and maintain shareholder-friendly policies. Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT), Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX), and Landstar System (LSTR) warrant close attention from investors seeking exposure to the transportation sector.

Understanding the Trucking Industry’s Shifting Dynamics

The Zacks Transportation - Truck industry encompasses carriers providing full-truckload and less-than-truckload (LTL) services across North America. These operators move freight via diverse service types—dry-van, dedicated, refrigerated, and flatbed—using company-owned or independent contractor equipment. Beyond core trucking, most players offer logistics, intermodal services, and value-added solutions including supply-chain consulting and warehousing.

The industry’s near-term prospects appear murky on the surface. The Zacks Transportation - Truck industry currently ranks 207 among more than 250 sectors, placing it in the bottom 17%. This reflects analyst caution: the 2023 consensus earnings estimate had contracted 12.8% year-over-year across the group, signaling diminished confidence in near-term profitability.

The Dual Forces Shaping Trucking Stocks

Freight Demand Remains the Silver Lining. Despite broader economic uncertainty, freight tonnage volumes have remained resilient. The American Trucking Associations’ seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index expanded through early 2023, with analysts expecting continued strength as supply-chain normalization supports steady demand. This buoyancy is the primary reason trucking stocks merit consideration despite industry headwinds.

Driver Shortages and Cost Inflation Create Headwinds. The supply-side problem is acute: persistent shortages are constraining trucking capacity precisely when demand is strong. The American Trucking Associations estimated an 80,000-driver deficit in 2021 and projects shortfalls exceeding 160,000 drivers by 2030. Simultaneously, operating expenses are rising sharply due to fuel costs—particularly following OPEC+ production cuts. These dynamics squeeze margins while limiting growth potential, explaining analyst caution on earnings growth.

Dividend Growth Signals Conviction. Despite challenges, several trucking stocks have resumed or expanded shareholder distributions, signaling management confidence in underlying business durability. J.B. Hunt increased its dividend 5% in early 2023, while Old Dominion raised its payout 33% the same period. These moves underscore solid financial positions and management’s optimism about navigating the cycle.

Valuation Perspective: Finding Value in Trucking Stocks

On a trailing 12-month enterprise value-to-EBITDA basis, the trucking industry trades at 9.38X versus the S&P 500’s 12.68X and the broader Transportation sector’s 10.81X. Historically, this group has ranged from 6.78X to 18.06X over five years, with a median near 10.13X. The current valuation suggests limited downside at these levels and meaningful upside if the sector rebounds.

Four Trucking Stocks to Watch

Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL). A leading less-than-truckload provider based in Thomasville, North Carolina, Old Dominion is benefiting from robust LTL freight demand. In 2022, LTL shipments increased 0.8% year-over-year while per-shipment revenue jumped 18.3%—demonstrating pricing power and volume resilience. The company announced plans to expand capacity through new service centers, additional equipment, and technology upgrades in 2022. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2023 earnings was revised upward 4% over 90 days. ODFL carries a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold).

J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT). This diversified transportation provider operates across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, with strength across its Dedicated Contract Services, Truckload, and Final Mile Services segments. The 2024 revenue consensus stood at $15.5 billion, representing 6.8% growth from 2023 estimates. JBHT’s geographic reach and service diversification provide resilience across freight cycles. The stock carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX). Headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, Knight-Swift is North America’s largest truckload carrier. Logistics segment revenue grew 12.7% in 2022, driving top-line expansion. The 2024 earnings consensus of $4.69 per share implied 19.7% growth from 2023 estimates, reflecting strong operational momentum. KNX maintains a Zacks Rank of 3.

Landstar System (LSTR). Based in Jacksonville, Florida, Landstar operates an asset-light integrated transportation management platform. With freight market recovery, its van truckload business accelerated. Ocean and air-cargo revenues surged 70.9% year-over-year to $558.98 million in 2022, while other revenues expanded 16.6% to $101.72 million. The 2024 earnings consensus of $9.59 per share had risen 4.1% in the prior 90 days. LSTR is rated Zacks Rank 3.

The Bottom Line

Trucking stocks face genuine headwinds from driver scarcity and fuel costs. However, the structural demand backdrop and attractive valuations make this group of trucking stocks worth monitoring for investors with conviction in economic resilience. The four names highlighted above represent quality operators positioned to compete through the cycle.