Trump's one word, oil prices stall, crypto counterattack

Upon waking up, oil prices collapsed.

Yesterday, oil prices that had surged to $110 per barrel experienced a historic crash, plummeting over 30% in a single day and briefly falling below $84 per barrel, flooding social media.

Yesterday, I wrote an article titled “Why does oil rise while Bitcoin falls?” analyzing the relationship between oil and Bitcoin prices. As we discussed earlier, this morning’s sharp decline in oil prices and the temporary cooling of inflation expectations led to a significant retaliatory rebound in Bitcoin, bringing it back to the $70,000 level.

This again demonstrates Bitcoin’s characteristic as a “liquidity thermometer.” Once the inflation-boosting signal from rising oil prices cools off, market fears of interest rate hikes ease, liquidity expectations recover, and Bitcoin quickly regains lost ground.

This rise and fall also reflect the latest stance of the Trump administration on the war situation.

In his speeches last night and this morning, Trump’s attitude shifted subtly but critically. Although he previously demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” he now stated at the latest press conference that the military operations by the US and Israel “are progressing very smoothly and ahead of schedule,” implying that the main military objectives have been “basically achieved.”

At the same time, Trump hinted at a ceasefire, openly stating that the conflict will “very soon” be resolved. While he did not specify a ceasefire timetable, this “mission nearly accomplished” posture greatly alleviated market fears of a “long-lasting war” and “full-scale conflict.”

Meanwhile, concerns around the Strait of Hormuz also eased significantly this morning. The core logic behind the previous surge in oil prices was market fears that this critical passage, through which nearly one-fifth of global oil passes, might be blocked. Today, Trump presented several moves on the supply side: announcing plans to deploy the US Navy to escort oil tankers directly, considering exemptions from some energy sanctions to offset Middle Eastern shortages, and mentioning the mobilization of about 100 million barrels of Venezuelan oil into the market.

At the same time, G7 finance ministers issued a joint statement, saying that countries have reached a consensus to be ready to release emergency strategic petroleum reserves at any time. With multiple measures in place, a large amount of short-term speculative capital began to unwind and retreat around the $120 level.

Is Trump really going to cease hostilities?

Early in the morning, I read many military analyses, most of which believe that, just as in the initial phase of the conflict when “the justification was clear,” Trump is now seeking a dignified “victory announcement” and a way to withdraw troops, so as to end the military operation as smoothly as possible.

From a military perspective, the initial “decapitation” operations against Iran’s high-ranking officials and the large-scale destruction of Iran’s air force and navy have already achieved a “major victory” militarily. Therefore, some analysts believe that as long as actual control over the Strait of Hormuz is established—whether through US military intervention or private security companies—the security of the energy corridor can be assured.

This “stop at the right time” mentality stems from the Trump administration’s desire to avoid repeating past mistakes. Trump is well aware of the complexity of Middle Eastern affairs and fears that long-term deployment of ground troops could lea