Meme coin watchlist: Who is cultivating real fans, and who is manipulating the data?

Null

Written by: Michael Nadeau

Compiled and organized by: BitpushNews

Whether you like it or not, we believe memecoins will exist long-term. This article shares macro insights into the industry and takes a closer look at the meme coins we are monitoring.

Let’s get started.

Why Focus on Memecoins

Our Methodology

Some people love memecoins, others despise them. We try to step outside this debate and simply observe the market. From our observations, memecoins have taken root. From the perspective of “Product-Market Fit (PMF),” they seem to be the ultimate crypto “game.” People enjoy trading, gambling, social aspects, and the risk-reward dynamics. And we believe participants are very aware of what kind of game they are playing.

After witnessing PEPE’s success within the Ethereum ecosystem, we seized opportunities at the end of 2023 with BONK and Solana. This led us to explore the space more deeply, including on-chain data and additional investments like GIGA, PEPE, and SPX6900. Our goal is to identify unique properties in holder data that indicate a token’s staying power and the conviction of its holders.

Why Choose BONK, PEPE, SPX6900, PENGU, and USELESS?

Liquidity: Each token has sufficient liquidity and can be traded on mainstream exchanges and retail channels.

Audience Reach: Each token has a global interest base (not limited to niche memes like specific politics).

Leadership / Embedded Culture: Each token is supported by at least one of the following: 1) highly influential leaders / holder groups; 2) established internet memes / culture; or 3) existing popular brands.

Historical Performance: Each token has experienced multiple sharp rallies followed by significant corrections. This price pattern indicates broad market interest and helps diversify holder structures, laying the groundwork for future expansion.

No Unlocks, No Venture Capital: Only transparent on-chain data.

High Beta: Each token exhibits high beta relative to BTC and its L1 ecosystem assets. With proper allocation (targeting 3-5%), selection, and entry points, this can significantly enhance risk-adjusted returns.

Now, let’s dive into on-chain data to see if we can separate the signal from the noise.

Total Token Holders

BONK: 985,900 current holders (at peak holdings). Launched in December 2022, BONK is the largest memecoin within the Solana ecosystem, deeply integrated into various applications and wallets. Note that BONK has conducted community-driven airdrops, dispersing tokens across many wallets, reflected in the data below.

PENGU: 534,100 holders (down 14% from peak). Launched in December 2024, representing social interest in the popular brand Pudgy Penguin. Currently, the total market cap of Pudgy Penguin NFTs is about $78.5 million, while its memecoin market cap is $454 million (5.7 times the NFT series, down from a peak of $2.7 billion). We believe the Pudgy Penguin brand—an established mainstream crypto brand—may continue to transfer value into this memecoin.

PEPE: 505,700 current holders (down 1.51% from peak). Launched in April 2023. We see PEPE as the purest expression of internet meme culture within crypto (especially on Ethereum). It is based on the globally recognized “Pepe the Frog,” which has maintained a strong internet presence since the late 2010s.

SPX6900: 113,000 current holders (down 0.33% from peak). Launched in September 2023, it has fostered a passionate online community led by Murad, centered around the idea of “flipping the stock market.” The brand appears to combine financial satire with a “BTC-like” holder base, with very serious attitudes (as shown in the data below). We successfully traded SPX6900 during the last bull run and have been analyzing its community and on-chain data since August 2024.

USELESS: 38,600 current holders (down 5.2% from peak). Launched in May 2025, as a satirical “anti-utility” memecoin. After launching LetsBONK last year (which captured market share from Pump Fun), it attracted a vertical and seemingly loyal community. Its current market cap is $44 million, with daily liquidity exceeding $10 million (at market lows). We believe, under suitable market conditions, USELESS could present interesting opportunities.

Holders with less than $100

Conclusion:

BONK, PENGU, and PEPE already have very mature holder bases. SPX6900 shows a more committed and loyal holder base (despite smaller scale).

Holders with over $1,000

Note: The $1,000 wallet classification is based on the number of tokens held at their all-time high (ATH) value equivalent to $1,000.

Conclusion:

SPX6900 stands out here, consistent with its historical performance.

To better understand retention among $1,000 holders, we normalize each token’s ATH data to calculate the number of tokens needed to reach $1,000 at that time.

We then track how these wallets’ holdings (in units) change over time. This aims to strip out price volatility noise and more accurately gauge holder retention.

Our findings:

Conclusion:

In terms of “$1,000 holder” retention (measured in units to remove price effects), SPX6900 appears to lead among its peers.

Holders with over $100,000

$100,000 wallet classification: based on the number of tokens held at the ATH equivalent to $100,000.

Retention Rate

Similar to the $1,000 holder data, wallets are classified by their holdings at ATH in units.

We then track how the total number of “$100,000 wallets” (in token units) changes over time.

Our findings:

Conclusion:

Again, SPX6900 leads in retention among $100,000-level token holders.

Whale Retention

Another way to monitor whale retention is to count all wallets that have ever held over $100,000 worth of tokens, then compare this to the number of wallets still holding more than 50% of their peak holdings (in units).

Our findings:

Momentum and 50-week Moving Average (WMA)

Relative Strength

When buying memecoins, we look for entry points where the 14-day RSI is at or near oversold levels (30).

50-week Moving Average

SPX6900: trading 64% below the 50 WMA.

BONK: trading 62% below the 50 WMA.

PENGU: trading 58% below the 50 WMA.

PEPE: trading 57% below the 50 WMA.

Drawdown from all-time high

Given SPX6900’s superior on-chain data, it’s not surprising that it performs relatively stronger than other tokens.

Conclusion

Considering the industry’s attention, we believe it’s wise for crypto investors to pay attention to memecoins. We find that memecoins are highly valuable for monitoring broad risk appetite (risk-on/off) and liquidity conditions in the crypto market.

Moreover, with appropriate position sizing and entry timing, the right assets can serve as powerful catalysts for a portfolio.

In the last bull cycle, we successfully captured gains from BONK and SPX6900 with minimal position sizes, achieving over 10x returns. We will continue to seek similar entry opportunities in the future.