Trump's one statement (early morning Beijing time at 3:00) triggered a reversal in global markets. In an interview with CBS, he said, “I think the war is basically over.”

Yesterday's market rally was not very precise; in fact, it made a “timing error.” Trump said the war might end soon, but the issue is that ending the war does not mean the Strait of Hormuz will immediately reopen. Currently, there are still many oil tankers and liquefied natural gas ships stranded near the strait, and insurance costs have not fallen just because of his statement. Iran stated that any Arab or European country that expels Israel and U.S. diplomats from its territory will have full authority and freedom to pass through the Strait of Hormuz starting tomorrow. Essentially, the rise was driven by Trump's statement, which precisely hit the market's most sensitive nerve—the lack of “certainty.” If the war truly ends, a stock market rally is reasonable, but yesterday's rise more resembles short covering. In the previous days, the market experienced the classic “stock decline, gold decline, dollar rise, and U.S. Treasury yields rise”—a liquidity tightening pattern. The sudden reversal yesterday was likely due to forced liquidations. This “passive rise” often lacks sustained buying support. Additionally, oil prices initially reacted with a “rise” at Tuesday's open, not a “continued decline,” indicating the situation is more complex than it appears. If no actual shipping resumes in the next few days or Iran conducts an “asymmetric counterattack,” the probability of a second surge in oil prices is very high. Over the past 48 hours, the market has been trading on the war. In the next 48 hours, the market will be trading on—reality.