Part Four of Gold Trading:

Gold at a Turning Point: Disorder, Inflation, and Restructuring of Gold.
My Own "Gold Trilogy"
The first discusses what risks gold hedges against
The second discusses hedging seigniorage under RMB asset holdings
The third covers gold trading under the red and white buttons of the US side.
When I write the fourth part, after taking profit at 5300 with 30% gain and returning to 5300 again, I’ve been holding long since selling 12.4 BTC to buy gold last August. How long to hold long-term? Today I want to share my thoughts.
This year has been called the Year of Precious Metals, with various small metals doubling in value. Many bloggers are buying all kinds of small metals, but now it’s shifted to oil and lobsters.
For me, it’s more meaningful to wait for a system cycle to complete and track my own thoughts, rather than follow hot trends.
The current gold market is more like the Cold War era between the US and the USSR:
Stagnation in technological development – Geopolitical confrontation – Technological revolution leading to a productivity revolution (AI’s role is uncertain)
Stagnant technological development is like today’s crypto world: no growth, only mutual destruction.
At the national level, it’s evolving from win-win to plunder.
From capital plunder to resource plunder, leading to geopolitical eruptions.
The recent surge in rare earths, tungsten, and selenium is evidence. Besides being resources for R&D and technology, they are also strategic resources used in fighter jets and such.
This results in premiums for strategy and war, as ultimately, war involves an arms race.
Once plunder is exhausted, there’s a handshake, and productivity driven by technology leads to economic growth, prompting cooperation again and restructuring the global financial order.
This can be considered a cycle. You should understand which cycle we are in now.
Gold is also being aggressively bought by many smart investors in anticipation of the end of the war.
But I am still holding and not rushing to act, aside from cross-hedging between BTC and gold and asset allocation.
I also read @kw666_2006’s article, where he compared:
The US Dollar Index and Gold
The price of US inflation-protected bonds before 2024 and gold
The comparison of US inflation-protected bonds and gold starting in 2024
The conclusion is: the market is pricing in the chaos of the world’s financial asset valuation after the loss of the US dollar’s reserve currency status.
My previous expectation before Iran was that military threats to Iran would be more effective than killing Iran outright.
Now we are in a period of threats without actual conflict, somewhat more aggressive than I expected.
This also reflects the disorder brought by Trump’s hedging style and the weak support for the dollar.
In summary, I will wait a bit longer. My cost basis for gold is probably well known among fans—around 3100—so I have some margin.
Here, I recommend learning from @MSX_CN about gold trading:
Replace the previous triple-leveraged gold ETF UGL with physical gold GLD.