I have given up on the idea of making big money through prediction markets.

I tried all kinds of strategies, and currently I am only making a small profit.
So I changed my approach and started viewing betting as a form of “cognitive reverse forcing.”
Taleb considers Skin in the Game one of the most effective learning methods.
When real money is at stake under uncertainty, the brain truly enters a high-frequency learning mode.
For example, I bet on the “Vietnamese Prime Minister” market on黎明兴.
Not only did I learn about黎明兴 himself, but I also gained a rough understanding of Vietnam’s official historical narrative.
Vietnamese often say “Heaven is too far, China is too close,” with China depicted as the biggest potential threat in Vietnam’s history.
Most of the content about war in Vietnamese textbooks relates to resisting Chinese dynasties.
This historical narrative directly influences Vietnam’s political and diplomatic logic. Once you understand this, you can see why Vietnam adopts a “bamboo diplomacy” in the China-U.S. rivalry.
For example, in the “Oscar 2026: Best Director” prediction market, I bought several NO markets.
After learning about it, I found out that Zhao Ting, the director of “Nomadland,” who ranks third in winning probability, is actually the stepdaughter of Song Dandan (Song’s current husband is her biological father).
The strange dimensional wall just cracked open like that.
Although I didn’t make money, I gained quite a bit of strange knowledge.