#国际油价突破100美元

Seeing the hot topic of Gate Square, as a spot + futures trader who has been deeply involved in the energy sector for years, I have to chime in! This wave of market movement is simply explosive, I can't hold back 🔥

Is now the time to " chase the high" or "buy the dip"?
This is indeed the most confusing question everyone is facing right now. My view is: in the short term, focus on sentiment; in the medium term, look at supply and demand; in the long term, consider "de-globalization."

1. Short-term (1-2 weeks): There may still be momentum to push prices higher, but volatility will be significant. The market is currently entirely driven by news. If the situation continues to escalate, for example affecting actual supply, then not only 110 or 114, but even 125 or higher could be possible. But jumping in now requires a big heart, because a 10% pullback could happen at any time. For friends with low risk appetite, I suggest waiting for a pullback and stabilization before considering entry.
2. Medium-term (Q2-Q3): The supply-demand gap is a hard logic. Don’t forget, even before the tense situation, global energy supply and demand were already tight. OPEC+ has been unable to meet production increase expectations, and demand in Europe and America (especially diesel and jet fuel) is recovering strongly. Even without this, a shift upward in the oil price center is highly likely. Now with geopolitical premiums added, expecting prices to immediately fall back below 80 is basically unrealistic.
3. My strategy: I won't be heavily chasing the high at 114 now, but if there is a deep correction down to around 95-100, I will consider re-entering. Because this might not be just a simple "chase the high," but a confirmation of the "high-price era" in energy. Of course, this is just my personal opinion and not investment advice!

Finally, I strongly recommend everyone check out Gate’s TradFi section. The reason we’ve been able to catch this wave is because TradFi products are very straightforward, allowing us to quickly capture extreme fluctuations in traditional financial markets without complicated rollovers. For those of us who need to watch K-line charts but also want to avoid hassle, it’s very friendly.