A $2 trillion bubble is on the verge of bursting.

The private credit market has multiplied fivefold since 2010
From $220 billion to over $1 trillion in invested capital.

But behind these massive numbers, cracks are forming:
Over 31,000 private companies have not been sold yet, with an unrealized book value reaching $3.2 trillion.
Annual distributions to investors have collapsed from 20% to just 6%
And the cumulative five-year return has entered negative territory.

24% of major portfolios rely on "PIK" interest—interest added to the debt instead of paid in cash. A classic sign of borrower distress.

Lending margins have eroded to 5%,
While financing costs are rising, and managers are resorting to "creative" accounting to cover deficits.

The liquidity promised to investors?
It has become an illusion.

Funds impose restrictions on redemptions when owners really need them.
Private markets naturally hide problems longer than public markets.
But they don’t hide them forever.

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