Soy Stock Surges as Crushing Activity Exceeds Expectations

Soybean futures wrapped up Tuesday’s trading session with modest gains, as bullish fundamentals continued to support prices across the complex. The market showed resilience with a national average cash price reaching $10.68 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents. Meanwhile, the surge in soy stock levels—particularly soybean oil inventories—signaled robust processing demand that continues to underpin market sentiment.

Soybean Prices Close on Firm Footing

The front-month soybean contracts advanced fractionally to 1 1/4 cents higher, reflecting steady buyer interest. Notably, the March delivery closed at $11.34 with a 1-cent gain, while the May contract ended 1/4 cent higher at $11.48 3/4. July contracts similarly gained 1 1/4 cents to close at $11.61 3/4. In contrast, soymeal futures faced some headwinds, trading a dime to 10 cents lower in the forward months, while soy oil futures showed strength with gains of 21 to 44 points.

Oil Inventory Climbs Significantly on Strong Crushing

NOPA’s latest data revealed impressive crushing volumes that supported the rally in soy stock levels. During January, processors crushed 221.56 million bushels of soybeans, substantially outpacing market estimates and climbing 10.57% from the prior year. Though slightly down 1.52% from December levels, the robust January activity reinforced the case for higher processing-driven demand. Most importantly, soybean oil stocks climbed 15.6% from the previous month and surged 49.07% compared to the same period last year, highlighting the ongoing strength in soy stock accumulation across the market.

Export Momentum Gains Traction with Asian Demand

Export inspections data underscored the global appetite for U.S. soybeans, with shipments totaling 1.203 million metric tons (44.2 million bushels) in the week ending February 12—up 5.01% from the prior week and 65.3% above the same period last year. China dominated as the top destination with 684,069 metric tons, while Egypt received 223,890 metric tons and Colombia imported 81,455 metric tons. On a marketing year basis, total shipments have reached 24.35 million metric tons (894.7 million bushels), reflecting a substantial 32.4% year-over-year increase that underscores sustained international demand.

Brazilian Harvest Lags Prior Year Pace

Looking ahead to supply considerations, AgRural’s assessment showed that Brazilian soybean farmers had completed 21% of the harvest as of early last week, trailing the 24% pace recorded during the same timeframe in 2025. This slower harvest trajectory could potentially support prices, as concerns about near-term global supply availability persist amid steady global demand.