BTC 15-minute increase of 1.06%: Macroeconomic liquidity expectations and institutional buying resonance driving the market

On March 3, 2026, from 12:00 to 12:15 (UTC), Bitcoin experienced a significant surge, with a 15-minute return of +1.06%. The price ranged from $67,030.1 to $67,966.1 USDT, with an amplitude of 1.40%. This movement attracted widespread market attention, with active short-term trading and increased volatility indicating accelerated capital inflows into mainstream cryptocurrencies.

The main drivers behind this movement were optimistic macroeconomic policy expectations and resonance from leading institutional buy orders. As the Federal Reserve’s meeting approached, the market generally expected interest rates to remain stable and the likelihood of ending quantitative tightening (QT) before May to increase, providing liquidity support for risk assets like Bitcoin. Meanwhile, continuous ETF capital inflows highlighted institutional allocation demand, with asset management firms like BlackRock significantly increasing their holdings by 2,600 BTC (approximately $218 million) in early March, solidifying support for spot prices.

Additionally, on-chain data since early 2026 shows that active addresses and trading volume for BTC have been steadily rising, with February trading volume increasing by 362.80% year-over-year. Capital activity remains high, indicating strong user engagement. Large whale addresses have shown signs of accumulation before and after the movement, and the market structure appears healthier. In the derivatives market, CME futures and options contracts for March are concentrated, with major funds engaging in intense battles around key levels, amplifying short-term spot price volatility. There have been no major negative industry events, and limited volatility in external assets has also contributed to a risk appetite rebound.

However, caution is advised regarding the potential for retracement due to increased long-short disagreements in the derivatives market after short-term volatility. Attention should be paid to large on-chain fund movements, ETF capital flows, and Federal Reserve policy implementation. It is recommended to monitor key resistance levels around $68,000, whale activity on the chain, and derivatives position structures to avoid blindly chasing highs and to stay updated with real-time market information.