XRP in a decisive impulsive zone: Is a recovery rally on the way?

After weeks of corrective action, XRP seems to be reaching a critical point. Technical analysts observe that the price has fallen toward the “golden pocket”—the level where capitulation typically occurs within corrective patterns. The bullish divergence at recent lows suggests that selling pressure is losing strength. With XRP currently trading at $1.35, attention now focuses on whether the previous impulsive structure is fully formed or if key movements still need confirmation.

The corrective structure bottoms out in the golden pocket

The retracement has been remarkably precise. XRP has hit exactly the 0.618 retracement zone along with the 1.618 extension of Wave 3, confirming what analysts call a “textbook movement.” This level is not accidental: historically, it marks where participants capitulate before relief begins.

What’s interesting is that the previous Wave 2 was extraordinarily shallow, retracing only to the 0.382 level. According to Elliott Wave theory, shallow second waves often precede much larger fourth waves. This opens possibilities for a more vigorous relief move than some initially expected.

Key resistances on the way to the relief wave

With Wave 3 likely completed, the next critical phase is Wave 4—a relief wave. Technical analysts identify specific resistance levels:

The first level is $1.78 (Fibonacci retracement 0.382), which would serve as an initial test. If the price manages to hold above, the next technical target would be $1.93. Both levels are important to confirm that the previous impulsive pattern maintains its structure.

The truly critical level remains at $2.03—the macro 0.5 retracement. If XRP recovers and sustains this price as support, it would significantly reduce the likelihood of another impulsive decline and increase the chances that the fifth wave will fail, which is typically bullish for the medium term.

Final phase expanded flat: a sign of trend reversal?

Another technical perspective suggests we are in the final phase of an “expanded flat” correction. In this structure, XRP would be deep within Wave C—the most emotional and destructive part of the pattern.

The identified completion zone is $1.14 - $1.60, a range within which the price has recently been trading. Expanded flats are known for psychologically exhausting participants before a significant trend change begins. If this interpretation is correct, we are close to a definitive resolution.

Bullish vs bearish scenarios: what remains to be confirmed?

Bullish scenario: A sustained move above $1.78 would indicate that Wave 4 relief is underway. Confirmation is reinforced if XRP accepts above $1.93 and approaches $2.03. This would invalidate the need for further declines and suggest that the previous impulsive cycle has completed.

Bearish scenario: As long as resistance is not broken and held, XRP could retreat again toward $1.55, or even lower if overall market conditions deteriorate. Nothing is confirmed until resistance levels are broken with accompanying volume.

As analysts remind us, XRP is at a decisive but still tentative level. The market awaits confirmation that will only come when price and volume act together. Next week could be crucial in determining whether the impulsive rally many have anticipated finally materializes.