Is Grifols (BME:GRF) Pricing Reflect Its Long-Term Slide And DCF Upside Potential

Simply Wall St

Sun, February 15, 2026 at 3:09 PM GMT+9 6 min read

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GRFS

+0.43%

GIFLF

+20.07%

GIFOF

-6.78%

GIKLY

+1.98%

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If you are wondering whether Grifols shares offer solid value at today's price, it helps to step back and look at what the recent numbers and news are really telling you.

The stock last closed at €10.95, with returns of 0.7% over 7 days, 0.6% over 30 days, a 2.2% decline year to date, a 20.6% gain over 1 year, a 22.6% decline over 3 years and a 49.1% decline over 5 years.

Recent coverage of Grifols has focused on its position in the pharmaceuticals and biotech space and on how investors interpret its longer term share price record alongside current market sentiment. This context has kept attention on whether the current price reflects the underlying business or shorter term shifts in risk perception.

On our valuation framework, Grifols scores 4 out of 6 for its value checks, as shown in this valuation score. This suggests there is more to unpack in how different methods assess the shares, and we will also look at an even richer way to think about valuation by the end of this article.

Grifols delivered 20.6% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Biotechs industry.

Approach 1: Grifols Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model looks at the cash Grifols is expected to generate in the future and discounts those projected amounts back into today’s euros to estimate what the business could be worth now.

For Grifols, the model uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is €743.2 million. Analysts provide explicit forecasts for the next few years. Beyond that, Simply Wall St extrapolates the trends to build a 10 year view. On this basis, projected free cash flow for 2030 is €1,479.5 million, with intermediate annual estimates between 2026 and 2035 discounted back to their present values in the model.

Putting all of these discounted cash flows together gives an estimated intrinsic value of €25.40 per share. Compared with the recent share price of €10.95, this implies Grifols is trading at a 56.9% discount to this DCF estimate.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Grifols is undervalued by 56.9%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 229 more high quality undervalued stocks.

GRF Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Grifols.

Approach 2: Grifols Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like Grifols, the P/E ratio is a useful shorthand because it links what you pay for each share directly to the earnings that support it. Investors usually accept a higher or lower P/E depending on how they view a company’s growth prospects and risks, so what counts as a “normal” or “fair” P/E can vary quite a bit.

Story Continues  

Grifols currently trades on a P/E of 19.99x. That sits below the Biotechs industry average of 28.47x and also below the peer group average of 38.91x. On the surface, that points to a lower earnings multiple than many similar companies in the space.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Grifols is 39.41x, which is its proprietary estimate of a suitable P/E based on factors such as earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and company specific risks. This tailored Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple comparison with peers or the sector because it adjusts for the characteristics that make Grifols different. With the current P/E of 19.99x sitting well below the Fair Ratio of 39.41x, the shares screen as undervalued on this metric.

Result: UNDERVALUED

BME:GRF P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Grifols Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to think about valuation. On Simply Wall St you can use Narratives, where you and other investors connect a clear story about Grifols to specific assumptions for future revenue, earnings, margins and a fair value. You can then compare that fair value with the current price to decide if the shares look attractive or expensive. This is all inside an easy Community page tool that automatically refreshes when new earnings or news arrive. One Grifols Narrative might lean towards a higher fair value around €23.0 if you focus on stronger growth and margins. Another might land closer to €9.0 if you think growth, profitability and the P/E will be more constrained. This helps you see exactly how different views on the same company can lead to very different conclusions.

For Grifols, however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Grifols Narratives:

Each one connects a clear story about the business to specific numbers for growth, margins, valuation and risk, so you can see which version feels closer to your own view.

🐂 Grifols Bull Case

Fair value in this bullish narrative: €15.08 per share

Implied discount to this fair value at the recent €10.95 price: about 27.4% undervalued using ((15.08 - 10.95) / 15.08)

Revenue growth assumption: 5.63% a year

Assumes steady growth in plasma derived therapies, helped by an aging population, higher diagnosis rates and more uses for core products like immunoglobulins and albumin.

Builds in improving margins as plasma collection becomes more efficient, costs are managed carefully and a broader product pipeline supports earnings quality.

Accepts risks around pricing, regulation, competition and debt, but sees them as manageable if execution on growth, cash flow and deleveraging stays on track.

🐻 Grifols Bear Case

Fair value in this bearish narrative: €9.00 per share

Implied premium to this fair value at the recent €10.95 price: about 21.7% overvalued using ((10.95 - 9.00) / 9.00)

Revenue growth assumption: 5.32% a year

Assumes gene therapies, synthetic biologics and tighter healthcare systems gradually cap the long term demand for plasma based products.

Builds in pressure on margins from higher donor costs, stricter regulation and limits on pricing, which together weigh on profitability.

Requires a lower future P/E multiple of about 10.5x, reflecting a view that the market will pay less for each euro of earnings if these headwinds play out.

These two Narratives bracket a realistic range for how investors might look at Grifols today. If the bullish case feels closer to your expectations, the current price may look more appealing. If the bearish case resonates, you might decide the market is already paying too much. Either way, using Narratives gives you a clear framework to plug in your own revenue, margin and P/E assumptions and see where your personal fair value lands.

Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives

Do you think there’s more to the story for Grifols? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

BME:GRF 1-Year Stock Price Chart

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include GRF.MC.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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