Is Carrefour (ENXTPA:CA) Pricing Reflect Its Cash Flow Value After Recent Share Price Gains

Simply Wall St

Sun, February 15, 2026 at 2:10 PM GMT+9 6 min read

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If you are wondering whether Carrefour's current share price offers fair value or a potential mismatch to its fundamentals, you are not alone.

The stock last closed at €15.68, with returns of 5.6% over 7 days, 13.7% over 30 days, 8.8% year to date, 22.9% over 1 year and 30.8% over 5 years.

Recent news around Carrefour has focused on its role as a major European retailer and how it is positioned in the broader consumer sector. This helps frame how investors think about both its resilience and its sensitivity to shopper trends. Coverage has also highlighted how large retailers like Carrefour are adapting their store formats and product mixes, factors that can influence sentiment toward the stock.

Carrefour currently scores 2 out of 6 on our valuation checks, meaning it appears undervalued on 2 of the 6 metrics we apply. You can see the detailed scorecard at 2 / 6 valuation score. This sets us up to look at the usual valuation tools next and then finish with a broader way to think about what the market is pricing in.

Carrefour scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Carrefour Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes Carrefour’s expected future cash flows and discounts them back to today to estimate what the business could be worth per share in €.

For Carrefour, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, based on cash that could be available to shareholders. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about €2.01b. Analysts provide cash flow estimates for the nearer years, and Simply Wall St then extrapolates further out, with projected free cash flow of about €1.52b in 2028 and a series of estimates through 2035.

When those projected cash flows are discounted back and added up, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of €25.42 per share. Compared with the recent share price of €15.68, this implies a 38.3% discount, which indicates that Carrefour appears undervalued on this DCF view.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Carrefour is undervalued by 38.3%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 229 more high quality undervalued stocks.

CA Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Carrefour.

Approach 2: Carrefour Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a commonly used yardstick because it links what you pay per share to the earnings that each share generates. It gives you a quick sense of how much the market is willing to pay for €1 of current earnings.

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What counts as a “normal” or “fair” P/E depends on how the market views a company’s growth potential and risk profile. Higher expected growth and lower perceived risk usually support a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk tend to go with a lower P/E.

Carrefour currently trades on a P/E of about 34x. That is close to the peer average of about 33x in Consumer Retailing and above the broader industry average P/E of about 18x. To sharpen this comparison, Simply Wall St uses a “Fair Ratio”, which is the P/E level it would expect for Carrefour after weighing factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, size, industry and company specific risks.

This Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple peer or industry comparison because it adjusts for Carrefour’s own profile rather than assuming all retailers should trade on the same multiple. However, no Fair Ratio figure is currently available here, so you can only say that Carrefour’s P/E sits broadly in line with close peers but above the wider industry.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

ENXTPA:CA P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Carrefour Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives on Simply Wall St’s Community page let you attach your own story about Carrefour to the numbers by linking a view on its future revenue, earnings and margins to a forecast and then to a fair value. This updates automatically when new news or earnings arrive. You can then compare that fair value with the current price to decide whether you think the stock belongs in your portfolio, whether you lean toward a more cautious Carrefour view with fair value around €10 or a more optimistic stance closer to €18.

For Carrefour however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Carrefour Narratives:

First up is a more optimistic take that leans into long term earnings power and a higher future P/E, contrasted with a more measured view that puts more weight on execution risks and softer revenue assumptions.

🐂 Carrefour Bull Case

Fair value in this bullish narrative is set at €18.00.

At the last close of €15.68, that is about 12.9% below the narrative fair value.

The narrative currently assumes revenue growth of 41.51%.

Assumes Carrefour can lift margins through convenience format expansion, higher private label penetration and better cost leverage, supporting stronger earnings over time.

Factors in balance sheet support from potential real estate monetisation and ESG positioning, with emerging markets such as Brazil and Argentina contributing meaningfully to future earnings.

Uses a higher future P/E multiple than some other views, so you would need to be comfortable that Carrefour earns that valuation through revenue, margin and cash flow delivery.

🐻 Carrefour Bear Case

Fair value in this more cautious narrative is set at €14.23.

With the last close at €15.68, that is about 10.2% above the narrative fair value.

The narrative currently assumes revenue growth of 34.51%.

Builds in modest revenue assumptions and focuses on cost savings, price competitiveness and digital initiatives as key supports for margins rather than strong top line expansion.

Highlights headwinds from competition in Europe, currency moves in Brazil and Argentina, and the risk that portfolio reviews and exits, such as Taiwan, may affect earnings stability.

Applies a future P/E that is lower than the current level, so the fair value relies more on gradual earnings progress than on multiple expansion.

If you want to see how other investors are weighing these trade offs, you can review both narratives in full and then decide which assumptions feel closer to your own view of Carrefour.

Do you think there’s more to the story for Carrefour? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

ENXTPA:CA 1-Year Stock Price Chart

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include CA.PA.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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