The final bull market cycle of the 2026 BTC halving may experience a ultimate decline in December

Analyst Sanma Ge recently released a comprehensive forecast framework for the 2026 crypto market. According to his prediction, this year will be the final bull cycle within the Bitcoin halving cycle, and the market will experience several distinct phases of volatility. BTC is currently priced at $69.39K, and based on the forecast framework, the subsequent trends will exhibit specific characteristics in different months.

Early February Correction, Slow Rise in Spring

Sanma Ge expects a final dip in early February, followed by a rebound and slow upward trend in February and March. This time window is viewed as an adjustment period at the beginning of the year, building momentum for the subsequent market movements.

Key Turning Point from April to May

Starting in April, the market will enter a slow decline phase, with a potential sharp drop in May, targeting a price level of $50,000. This level is considered an important support point. At the same time, an extreme scenario of a drop to $33,000 cannot be ruled out. It’s worth noting that these significant corrections are not immediate but follow a volatility cycle based on monthly timeframes.

Summer Range-Bound and Altcoin Opportunities

After breaking below $50,000, the market is expected to enter a sideways consolidation throughout the summer. During this period, altcoins may gain short-term trading opportunities driven by events like the World Cup. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH, currently priced at $2.06K) may also see slight gains.

ETH’s Two-Stage Investment Strategy

Regarding Ethereum’s investment approach, Sanma Ge revealed his specific plan. Four months ago, he made a full-position bet at $2,388, but this was only a short-term swing trade. His real target is to wait until ETH drops back to the $1,688 level, a historical low point, approximately 10 months later, to go all-in. This strategy reflects two key price levels: “short-term at 2388, historical crash at 1688.”

Final Downtrend Warning from October to December

The most noteworthy part of the forecast is the market trend in Q4. October and December are expected to see significant declines, typically targeting the $50,000 level, but potentially deeper in extreme cases. This period also marks the intense volatility characteristic of the final stage of the halving cycle. According to this framework, the 2026 crypto market will undergo a complete cycle.