The three major stock index futures fluctuate differently, and Palantir's earnings report boosts confidence in tech stocks

1. On February 3rd (Tuesday) before the US stock market opens, the three major US stock indices futures moved mixed. As of press time, Dow futures fell 0.02%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.23%, and Nasdaq futures increased 0.45%.

2. As of press time, Germany’s DAX index rose 0.32%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.47%, France’s CAC40 index declined 0.11%, and Europe’s Stoxx 50 index increased 0.32%.

3. As of press time, WTI crude oil rose 0.37%, trading at $62.37 per barrel. Brent crude oil increased 0.21%, trading at $66.44 per barrel.

Market News

Heavyweight data “absent”! Non-farm payrolls delayed due to the US government shutdown, market expectations of 55,000 new jobs suddenly fall into “information vacuum.” The US Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed on Monday that, due to the partial government shutdown, the January employment report scheduled for release on Friday will not be published as planned. Deputy Director Emily Riddell stated in a release: “The January 2026 Employment Situation Report will not be released as originally scheduled on Friday, February 6, 2026. The release date will be rescheduled once government funding resumes.” It is currently unclear whether the Department of Commerce will face report delays due to the Washington deadlock. This decision comes during a week dense with economic data releases, with the highlight originally expected to be the non-farm employment report (also known as the unemployment report). Market expectations prior to this report were that employment would increase by 55,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.4%.

Morgan Stanley: Under Wosh’s leadership, the Federal Reserve may “speak less,” leading to increased volatility in the US bond market. Morgan Stanley stated that the Fed, led by Kevin Wosh, might increase bond market volatility due to reduced communication from the central bank. Strategists Matthew Hornbach and Martin Tobias wrote in a report on January 30: “Wosh does not like to let the market overly rely on the Fed’s views. If the market’s perception differs from his judgment, he may not reinforce the market’s views.” President Trump nominated Wosh as the next Fed Chair last week, to succeed Powell, whose term ends in May. Wosh previously served as a Fed Governor from 2006 to 2011. Morgan Stanley’s review of the FOMC meeting minutes from that time shows Wosh prefers investors to form their own judgments on economic growth, inflation, and monetary policy.

When will the “all-in” investments by tech giants pay off? Industry consensus: Revenue growth may lag behind massive investments in the long term. Wired columnist Steve Levy warned that the huge capital inflows into AI are unlikely to generate returns proportional to their scale in the short term. In an interview, Levy described this large-scale “money printing” by major tech companies as one of the most important economic issues of our time, noting that the high valuations of these massive cloud service providers are affecting the broader market. He said, “There is a basic consensus that their revenue will not be able to satisfactorily catch up with the scale of investments or the costs of these devices.” People worry that if these investments do not meet expectations, companies with trillion-dollar market caps could become overextended and struggle to extricate themselves.

Gold and silver “flash crash” then make a desperate comeback, dollar rebound unable to stop the risk-averse frenzy. Gold prices rose, recovering some of the losses from a previous record-breaking surge. Earlier, gold prices fell 13% over two days. Silver prices also increased. Gold had previously dropped 13% in two trading days. As of press time, spot gold briefly rose 5.17%, surpassing $4,900 per ounce, after falling nearly 5% the previous trading day, continuing the largest decline in over fifty years since last Friday. Silver surged 9.8%, breaking through $87 per ounce, after falling 7% on Monday, and hitting a intra-day low on January 30.

Stock News

Merck (MRK.US) 2026 earnings guidance disappoints, HPV vaccine struggles in China drag growth down. Merck’s 2026 earnings guidance disappointed the market, with the company expecting full-year sales of $65.5 billion to $67 billion and adjusted EPS up to $5.15, both below Wall Street expectations. This mainly stems from ongoing difficulties with its second-largest product, the HPV vaccine Gardasil, which the company expects to see stagnant shipments to China this year, and faces new challenges such as reduced dosing in the US market; Q4 Gardasil sales fell 35% year-over-year to $1.03 billion, slightly above the most pessimistic analyst expectations. However, Merck offset some of the decline with new drug sales, including rare lung disease drug Winrevair at $467 million for the quarter, and its flagship cancer drug Keytruda contributing $8.4 billion in revenue, partially offsetting Gardasil’s downturn.

PepsiCo (PEP.US) Q4 operating profit surged nearly 60%, announces 15%+ price cuts on Lay’s chips and other snacks + $10 billion share buyback. PepsiCo’s Q4 revenue and profit both exceeded Wall Street analyst expectations, mainly driven by strong international demand. More notably, the company announced a $10 billion share repurchase plan and reaffirmed a profit growth target announced in December 2025. The company’s Q4 non-GAAP adjusted EPS was $2.26, slightly above the average analyst estimate of about $2.23. For the three months ending December 27, revenue was approximately $29.34 billion, up 5.6% year-over-year, surpassing the expected $28.97 billion, with GAAP net profit around $2.54 billion, up about 67% year-over-year.

Pfizer (PFE.US) Q4 revenue $17.56 billion, adjusted EPS $0.66. Pfizer’s Q4 revenue declined 1% year-over-year to $17.56 billion; adjusted EPS increased 5% to $0.66. Pfizer forecasts 2026 revenue between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion; expects 2026 adjusted EPS between $2.80 and $3.00.

Palantir (PLTR.US) revenue guidance triggers pre-market surge, boosting tech stocks. Data analytics company Palantir released a forecast for FY2026 revenue that far exceeded Wall Street expectations, injecting confidence into its previously sluggish stock performance. The Denver-based firm announced on Monday that it expects full-year revenue of $7.18 billion to $7.2 billion, crushing the analyst average estimate of $6.27 billion. Its current quarter sales forecast of about $1.53 billion also beat market expectations. The company, heavily reliant on government contracts for most of its revenue, saw Q4 revenue jump 70% year-over-year to $1.41 billion, with EPS of 25 cents surpassing the 23-cent average forecast. As of press time, the stock surged over 11% pre-market, leading other tech stocks higher.

Q1 revenue guidance exceeds expectations but cannot offset weak automotive recovery, NXP (NXPI.US) dips pre-market. NXP announced a better-than-expected Q1 2026 revenue forecast, but due to slightly lower-than-expected growth in the automotive market, the stock fell over 5% in pre-market trading. Q4 revenue increased 7% year-over-year to $3.34 billion, above the analyst estimate of $3.3 billion. Under Non-GAAP standards, gross profit rose 7% to $1.91 billion with a gross margin of 57.4%; operating profit increased 8% to $1.15 billion with an operating margin of 34.6%; diluted EPS was $3.35, above the analyst estimate of $3.31.

AI demand explodes, Teradyne (TER.US) Q4 revenue and profit surge, Q1 guidance exceeds expectations. Semiconductor testing company Teradyne’s Q4 revenue grew 43.9% year-over-year to $1.08 billion, surpassing the expected $975.6 million (an 11% beat). Its non-GAAP EPS was $1.80, higher than the consensus estimate of $1.38. Semiconductor testing is the company’s largest segment, generating $883 million this quarter, with product testing and robotics contributing $110 million and $89 million respectively. Adjusted operating profit was $314 million, above the $249.8 million expected, with an adjusted profit margin of 29%. Operating margin was 27.1%, up from 20.4% last year. Free cash flow profit margin was 20.2%, below last year’s 29.9%.

From low-price standard to all-wheel drive: Tesla (TSLA.US) expands Model Y lineup in the US to counter subsidy cuts and increased competition. Tesla’s official website on Monday local time showed that the automaker has launched a new all-wheel drive version of its popular Model Y SUV in the US market, starting at $41,990. The new AWD Model Y is positioned above the lower-priced rear-wheel drive standard version. Previously, in October last year, Tesla introduced lower-cost standard versions of Model Y and Model 3, about $5,000 cheaper than the base models. These simplified models have become a core part of Tesla’s 2026 strategy, aiming to lower entry prices and attract more price-sensitive consumers, enabling market penetration without waiting for new mass-market models.

Cutting-edge AI memory bottleneck! SoftBank subsidiary teams up with Intel (INTC.US) to develop ZAM storage, aiming for commercial use by 2029. On Tuesday, SoftBank Group’s subsidiary Saimemory and US chipmaker Intel announced they have signed a cooperation agreement to jointly promote the commercialization of next-generation memory technology. The collaboration focuses on meeting the rising demands of AI and high-performance computing with new memory tech. The project is named “Z-Angle Memory Plan,” or ZAM. SoftBank states that prototypes are expected to be completed by the fiscal year ending March 31, 2028, with commercialization targeted for FY2029. After the announcement, SoftBank’s stock rose 3.13% on Monday, and Intel’s stock increased 5%. The plan focuses on developing core technologies for advanced memory.

Betting on AI power dividends! BlackRock (BLK.US) subsidiary GIP joins EQT in bidding for US power producer AES Generation (AES.US). According to sources, BlackRock’s (BLK.US) Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) has partnered with EQT to jointly bid for the acquisition of power company AES Generation (AES.US). The sources said the two investment firms could reach an agreement within the next few weeks. AES supplies renewable energy to tech giants like Microsoft (MSFT.US). The deal has not been publicly announced, and the sources requested anonymity, noting that negotiations are still ongoing and the final decision has not been made.

Important Economic Data and Event Preview

At 22:00 Beijing Time: US December durable goods orders (revised %) and US December factory orders (%).

At 23:00 Beijing Time: US December JOLTs job openings (ten thousand) and Mexico January SPGI manufacturing PMI.

In the early hours of the next day, 05:30 Beijing Time: US API weekly crude oil inventory change (thousand barrels).

At 21:00 Beijing Time: Speech by Federal Reserve FOMC voting member Richmond Fed President Barkin.

At 22:40 Beijing Time: Speech by Federal Reserve Board Member Bowman.

Earnings Reports Preview

Wednesday morning: AMD (AMD.US), Lumentum (LITE.US), Electronic Arts (EA.US), Emerson Electric (EMR.US)

Wednesday pre-market: Novartis (NVS.US), UBS (UBS.US), Novo Nordisk (NVO.US), Santander Bank (SAN.US), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.US), Uber (UBER.US), Eli Lilly (LLY.US), AbbVie (ABBV.US)