Weekend Deep Thinking: Why Should We Continue to Focus on Commercial Spaceflight?

The recent market has been poor, including in commercial aerospace, which has not stood out, but we have always坚持做商业航天. Some friends may find it hard to understand: why such persistence? Are there no opportunities in other sectors? Is it that besides commercial aerospace, Teacher Sun just won’t do other sectors? The weekend essay answers are as follows: [Taoguba]
1. Recent hot spot rotation clearly indicates that the miscellaneous sectors are the root cause of losses.
Recent hot spot transmission path: Commercial aerospace — AI applications — Tech hardware — Non-ferrous metals — Liquor + Chemicals (last Thursday) — Agriculture + Chemicals. That is: after a big surge in commercial aerospace, the profit-making effect was triggered. Subsequently, AI applications, tech hardware, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, liquor, agriculture, etc., followed with补涨. However, according to the basic principles of hot spot transmission, sectors that catch up have the following characteristics: (1) their highs will decrease sequentially; (2) their strength will also decrease sequentially; (3) rotation accelerates, currently in an “extreme rotation” state, a single-day rise does not mean profit, the next day may open lower. Recently, the last sector of补涨—precious metals—has been following an A-sharp route.

Image description: A chart showing recent market movements and sector rotations.

2. According to the规律 of hot spot rotation, commercial aerospace is likely to experience two or even multiple waves.
Previously, large sectors like new energy vehicles, CPO, storage chips, humanoid robots, etc., all showed multiple wave patterns. For example, CPO rose from September 2024 to 2026, with the “Three Musketeers”—Xinyi Sheng—from April 2025 at 46 yuan to the recent 472 yuan, Zhongji Xuchuang from April last year at 66 yuan to December at 658 yuan, Tianfu Communication from April last year at 40 to 270 yuan now. As a major theme, the probability that commercial aerospace will end after one wave is very small; similar to new energy vehicles, CPO, storage chips, etc., which have multiple waves, is higher.
Currently, the first wave of commercial aerospace adjustments has basically ended, and it is now in the “golden pit” position. On February 3rd, the aerospace development龙虎榜 showed a 900 million buy-in, which can be seen as偶然. But after market close today, Shenjian股份龙虎榜吴中大道+岳阳岳阳席位 continued buying, which is very rare amid recent market shrinking volume and collective disappearance of龙虎榜游资. We have previously introduced these two seats, which are very good at guiding popular stocks in the commercial aerospace sector. For example, since January, Wu Zhong Dadao mainly炒作 Shenjian股份, Western Materials, Shunhao股份, Aerospace Mechanical and Electrical, JuLi Sui, showing a strong偏爱 for commercial aerospace with a big格局.

Image description: A chart illustrating recent trading activity of key aerospace stocks and influential seats.

3. According to industry trends, commercial aerospace is likely to experience two or even multiple waves.
The Age of Discovery, the British Empire and other Western countries, based on their航海技术优势,疯狂抢占全球领土资源. For example, the British Empire’s overseas colonies once reached 33.5 million square kilometers, accounting for 1/4 of the world’s land area, with colonies 110 times the size of the homeland. Applying the historical logic of the Age of Discovery to today, developing commercial aerospace also concerns the country’s strategic survival and development rights in future space. Humanity is gradually entering the interstellar era, and physical space and strategic resources will be redefined. At this point, delay means passivity, leading establishes a century-long advantage. Accelerating the development of commercial aerospace is not only a technological and economic consideration but also a necessary choice in a new era of competition concerning future survival space, energy security, digital sovereignty, and national comprehensive security.
Currently, SpaceX is active: acquiring xAI, creating an ecosystem闭环 of “rocket launches — satellite networking — space computing power,” targeting orbital data centers and AI computing networks, with爆发需求 for space photovoltaics, inter-satellite laser communication, etc.; building a “million satellite constellation,” planning to deploy one million satellites, reshaping global通信与算力格局; officially announcing Starship V3’s maiden flight in March, with single launch capacity 20 times that of Falcon 9. These breakthroughs confirm that commercial aerospace is transitioning from policy incubation to industrial爆发, with the US-China space race intensifying, and domestic产业链迎来加速追赶与国产替代机遇.
For friends in the training camp, it is recommended to adopt a global and forward-looking mindset to establish a bigger格局.

4. Focusing on commercial aerospace is key to grasp the next wave of opportunities.
Compared to the huge fluctuations in other miscellaneous sectors, commercial aerospace has not shown outstanding profit-making effects recently, but tomorrow’s opportunities outweigh risks, and it is in the “golden pit” position. But this is not the main reason we suggest关注商业航天. We believe: (1) if you repeatedly关注其他杂毛板块, then when commercial aerospace starts, your reaction may be delayed, and you might develop a fear of “追高,” so even if a second wave occurs, you might miss it; (2) if you always focus on commercial aerospace, when it moves out of the底区间 into the second wave, you will inevitably be involved and catch the new main upward wave; (3) big opportunities in a year are few, just grasping a few major opportunities is enough, enough!
Theoretically, assuming a big surge doubles the investment, and you catch 4 main upward waves in a year, then with compound interest, the annual return could be 15 times. Therefore, as long as you earnestly grasp one upward trend each quarter, it is enough! Only with this understanding can you possibly achieve this goal. If you lack this understanding, such a goal may forever remain a distant dream.

Today, the rise and fall of commercial aerospace mainly due to market volume shrinking and the entire market’s lack of承接, leading to a unilateral decline. Under the “cooling” + recent external and internal market negative impacts, the pre-holiday冷清氛围 is especially prominent. But the more critical it is at this time, the more patience is needed. Under the W structure, “others panic, I greed”; while others sleep, I stay alert, patiently waiting for the next upward move!
Wishing friends a happy weekend!

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Disclaimer:
Investing involves risks, trade cautiously, plans are never faster than market changes, everything follows the market, the content of this article reflects personal ideas and records, documenting my understanding of the market, for personal sharing only, not investment advice, for reference only, buy and sell at your own risk!