Soybean Rally Extends Higher as Weather Concerns Weigh on Supply Outlook

Soybean futures demonstrated solid momentum through mid-week trading, with market strength cascading from the meal sector into broader grain complex movements. The upward trajectory reflects growing concerns about crop development in key production regions and heightened expectations around upcoming USDA export data.

Meal Market Surge Drives Soybean Futures Higher

Soybean meal futures led the charge, climbing $3.40 to $3.70 higher during the session, providing spillover support that lifted soybean contracts 7 to 8½ cents. The cmdtyView national average cash bean price followed suit, advancing 9¼ cents to settle at $10.08¾. In contrast, soy oil futures retreated 10 to 13 points, indicating divergent strength across protein and oil derivatives. This asymmetric price action suggests selective demand dynamics, with meal garnering particular attention from traders monitoring protein supply constraints.

Argentina’s Dry Pattern Pressures Soybean Production

The primary catalyst for meal strength centers on drier-than-normal weather forecasts across Argentina heading into critical growth phases for soybean plants. As one of the world’s largest soybean producers and exporters, Argentina’s growing conditions carry significant implications for global supply availability. The threat of reduced yields from weather stress has traders reassessing production potential and pricing in potential supply tightness for the remainder of the crop year.

USDA Export Data Expected to Signal Market Direction

Attention now turns to official guidance from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which will release weekly Export Sales data Thursday morning for the period ending January 23rd. Market participants are positioning for potential soybean sales ranging between 0.4 to 1.8 million metric tons in old crop commitments, with new crop bookings potentially reaching 100,000 MT. Soybean meal sales expectations span a 225,000 to 500,000 MT range, while soy oil exports are anticipated between zero and 26,000 MT. These figures will provide crucial insight into domestic and international demand strength.

Futures Contracts Show Mixed Performance Across Timeframes

The March 2026 soybean contract finished 7¾ cents higher at $10.75, while May 2026 soybeans gained 8¼ cents to close at $10.87¾. July 2026 soybean futures posted the largest advance, up 8½ cents to $10.01. The progression of gains across contract months reflects expectations of sustained price support, though the modest variation in daily advances suggests some profit-taking among near-term traders.

Market participants continue monitoring the intersection of weather developments, export demand signals, and USDA policy implications for soybean plants and related derivatives. The combination of supply-side pressure from Argentina and growing season considerations creates a complex backdrop for price discovery in coming weeks.