Why EQT Could Dominate the Natural Gas Boom of the 2030s

Natural gas demand is set to experience substantial growth over the coming decade, with significant implications for leading producers. Wood Mackenzie projects that U.S. natural gas consumption could increase by 22 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) through 2030, representing a substantial climb from the current baseline below 110 Bcfd in 2024. The emergence of power-intensive artificial intelligence data centers has intensified bullish sentiment around gas demand, creating a compelling investment thesis. This convergence of factors led me to increase my stake in EQT (NYSE: EQT), a company uniquely positioned to capitalize on this secular trend.

Natural Gas Demand Surge and Production Cost Advantages

The energy sector is undergoing a fundamental shift as computing demands explode. Beyond traditional forecasts, the rise of energy-hungry AI infrastructure is reshaping consumption patterns and creating urgent infrastructure requirements. For EQT, this backdrop matters tremendously because the company’s cost structure enables it to thrive even in volatile pricing environments.

Currently, natural gas trades above $3 per MMBtu (million British thermal units), a standard measurement for energy pricing. To understand EQT’s competitive positioning, it’s worth noting how energy units like MMBtu compare to alternative measurements such as thousand cubic feet (Mcf), which represents a different but related way to quantify gas volumes. When analyzing production costs relative to market pricing, EQT’s $2 per MMBtu operating expense reveals substantial margin potential. This production efficiency stems directly from its operational architecture rather than commodity price movements.

Vertically Integrated Operations Drive Competitive Edge

EQT stands alone as the only major vertically integrated natural gas producer at scale in the United States. This distinction provides an operational advantage that competitors cannot easily replicate. The company controls both upstream production assets and critical midstream infrastructure, meaning over 90% of its produced volumes move through its own distribution system.

The 2024 acquisition and integration of Equitrans Midstream exemplifies this strategy. By controlling the full value chain, EQT captures margin at every stage while reducing transportation costs that independent producers must pay to third parties. This structural advantage translates directly to the company’s ability to generate substantial free cash flow even when commodity prices soften. The cumulative $2.3 billion in free cash flow generated over the past 12 months demonstrates this principle in action.

Multiple Growth Drivers Position EQT for Expansion

EQT is executing several strategic initiatives beyond simply producing gas. The company is advancing pipeline expansion projects—the MVP Southgate and MVP Boost initiatives are targeted to enter commercial operation in 2028 and 2029 respectively. These projects will enhance the company’s ability to move gas to demand centers and support new power generation facilities that have committed to long-term supply agreements with EQT.

Additionally, the company has secured contracts to export liquefied natural gas (LNG) from U.S. terminals expected to commence operations in the early 2030s. These agreements lock in demand at a time when global gas markets remain dynamic. Meanwhile, EQT has demonstrated acquisition acumen, having purchased Olympus’s upstream and midstream operations for $1.8 billion last year to further consolidate its market position and operational scale.

Strong Cash Generation Enables Shareholder Returns

EQT’s operational efficiency and scale create a cash-generation engine that offers optionality. The company projects the ability to produce between $10 billion and $25 billion in cumulative free cash flow through 2029, assuming natural gas prices remain between $2.75 and $5.00 per MMBtu across the period. This flexibility enables management to pursue multiple capital allocation strategies simultaneously.

Recent decisions underscore this philosophy. EQT returned capital to shareholders by increasing its dividend by 5%, simultaneously repurchasing shares and reducing balance sheet leverage. The strengthened financial position creates room for opportunistic acquisitions or accelerated infrastructure investments should market conditions warrant.

A Commanding Position in a Structural Growth Market

EQT’s combination of scale, integrated operations, and low-cost production creates a formidable competitive position. The company can generate meaningful cash flow even if prices decline below $3 per MMBtu, providing downside protection. With multiple expansion catalysts—pipeline growth, LNG export agreements, power plant partnerships, and potential acquisition opportunities—EQT appears well-positioned to benefit from the structural growth in natural gas demand that the 2030s will likely bring. This positioning reinforced my decision to add to my position in this best-in-class natural gas operator.