Wake up! DOGE capital withdrawal signals are clear, and the government efficiency department's end period is approaching

As of February 5th, the latest data shows that Dogecoin (DOGE) has fallen to $0.09, with a 24-hour decline of -10.93%. During this wave of adjustment, large holders are accelerating their repositioning, and signs of capital withdrawal are becoming increasingly evident. If you’re still waiting for Elon Musk’s tweet to save the day, it’s time to wake up — the logic behind this market trend has quietly shifted.

At this turning point in the crypto market, we need to calmly examine the structural difficulties DOGE is facing: capital indifference, liquidity exhaustion, and the upcoming fade of policy support.

Market Status: Capital Flows Are Quietly Shifting

Since the launch of the 21Shares Dogecoin ETF (TDOG) on Nasdaq in mid-January, DOGE did experience a rally. However, this favorable window is rapidly closing. Since 2026, the market has entered an “efficiency cycle” of high-performance public chains competition, and DOGE’s mechanism of issuing 5 billion coins annually appears relatively passive in this new environment.

Key indicators show that large holders are using the liquidity brought by the ETF launch to systematically withdraw. Meanwhile, Solana (SOL) has performed relatively resilient, currently priced at $82.98 with a 24-hour decline of the same -10.93%. But from the capital flow perspective, institutions are more inclined to allocate to public chains with real applications rather than purely community assets.

This reflects not a short-term technical adjustment but a reordering of market valuation judgments across different assets.

Political Support Diminishing: The Countdown Has Begun

Elon Musk’s government efficiency department (D.O.G.E.) has officially announced it will disband on July 4, 2026. This timing is crucial — it marks the end of DOGE’s strongest narrative support.

Over the past few months, DOGE’s upward logic was largely built on “political hype.” But as the disbandment date approaches, this anticipated advantage is gradually being priced in. Once into the April-May policy effectiveness evaluation phase, a reassessment of this asset’s value is inevitable.

Historical experience shows that when external political support wanes, assets lacking fundamental backing often face significant pressure. DOGE needs to find new growth narratives, but currently, signals in this regard are unclear.

Three Major Risk Signals to Watch

Signal One: Persistent Liquidity Tightness

DOGE, with its massive annual issuance, relies heavily on liquidity. In a broader market risk-off environment, liquidity exhaustion will directly amplify price volatility. The current -10.93% daily decline is just the beginning.

Signal Two: Subtle Shifts in Institutional Stance

ETF listing is generally seen as positive, but fundamentally, it also provides institutions with easier entry and exit points. When large institutional orders start shifting, retail investors’ capacity to absorb the sell-off is extremely limited.

Signal Three: Risk of Technical Support Levels Breaking

If DOGE falls below the key support level established in January, it could face deeper technical selling pressure. At that point, attempting to buy the dip will significantly increase risks.

Investment Advice: Actively Rebalance, Not Passively Follow

The market always rewards those who follow the trend. When capital begins to adjust its stance, persistence is often not courage but a costly mistake.

Investors are advised to closely monitor DOGE’s technical support levels. Once a volume-driven breakdown occurs, immediately implement risk management. Also, pay attention to high-performance public chains with stronger fundamentals, such as SOL, to prepare for potential asset adjustments.

Wake up — the market will not change its course because of your beliefs.