#加密市场观察 Golden Finance reports that Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn posted on X platform stating that on-chain data, technical weakness at key price levels, macro uncertainties, and the lack of clear catalysts in the short term all indicate that BTC may continue to weaken over the coming weeks to months, potentially dropping to around the 200-week moving average.

Historically, these levels often serve as excellent entry points for long-term investors. From January 28 to January 31, Bitcoin declined a total of 15%, accelerating its downward move over the weekend. On Saturday alone, it fell 10%, and currently about 46% of Bitcoin supply is in unrealized loss. After the January close, Bitcoin experienced its first four consecutive monthly declines since 2018. Except for the special year of 2017, Bitcoin has never historically retraced 40% from its ATH without further decline exceeding 50% within three months.
A 50% retracement from the current ATH would place the BTC price at approximately $63,000. There is a clear on-chain position vacuum between $82,000 and $70,000, increasing the possibility of a short-term dip to test demand in that range. The current realized price is about $56,000, and the 200-week moving average is around $58,000. There is still no clear evidence of whales and long-term holders significantly increasing their holdings, but profit-taking among long-term holders is clearly slowing down.
Short-term catalysts remain scarce; Bitcoin has failed to participate alongside gold and silver in the “currency devaluation hedge trade,” which is also unfavorable from a narrative perspective. Although the crypto market structure legislation (the “CLARITY Act”) could become an external catalyst if passed, the probability of its passage has decreased recently. Even if it passes, its positive impact is more likely to benefit altcoins rather than BTC. Despite BTC possibly oscillating near a maximum discount of about -10% relative to ETF cost basis (currently around $76,000), the combined factors suggest a high probability of further decline toward the supply gap bottom around $70,000, and possibly testing the realized price ($56,000) and the 200-week moving average ($58,000). The timeframe for this could be from a few weeks to several months. Historically, these levels often mark cycle bottoms and provide strong entry opportunities for long-term investors.