SOL Technical Outlook: Accumulation Structure Forms Near Demand Zone

After a sharp rebound from the $224–$253 macro supply zone (0.786–1 Fib) was rejected, Solana remains in a broader corrective structure. This rejection marked a distribution top, followed by continued bearish momentum, currently stabilizing within a range near the lower boundary of the structure.
Recent price action indicates SOL is defending the $116–$128 macro demand base, with buyers beginning to establish an arc-shaped accumulation structure. Momentum has stabilized, although the trend on higher timeframes has not yet turned bullish.
EMA Structure (Bearish Bias, Short-term Stabilization)
20 EMA: $135.60
50 EMA: $137.16
100 EMA: $147.41
200 EMA: $158.82
SOL is currently below all major EMAs, maintaining a medium- to long-term bearish bias. The price is attempting to stay above $125–$130 micro support, indicating short-term stability, but with limited upside potential below the 100 and 200 EMA confluence.
The $147–$159 zone represents a major dynamic resistance band.
Fibonacci and Price Structure
1 Fib: $253.47
0.786 Fib: $224.22
0.618 Fib: $201.25
0.5 Fib: $185.12
0.382 Fib: $168.99
0.236 Fib: $149.03
Fib 0: $116.77
SOL is currently trading above the Fib 0 baseline ($116.77), below the 0.236 Fib ($149.03), remaining in a range-bound rebound phase.
A clear breakout and acceptance above $149–$159 would open space toward $169–$185 , where Fib resistance converges with EMAs.
Failure to hold above $125–$120 could lead SOL to retest the macro demand bottom.
Structural Background
Price action has formed higher lows since the December lows last year, indicating early accumulation behavior. However, SOL remains constrained by major EMAs and downward structural resistance. The current movement is classified as a corrective bottom rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
A strong close above $158–$116 on the daily chart would help shift the market structure toward a bullish continuation.
RSI Momentum
RSI $169 14(: 41–56
RSI is recovering from lower levels but remains near neutral, reflecting stabilized momentum and a lack of clear bullish confidence. This supports a bottoming environment rather than an impulsive breakout phase.
Key Levels
Resistance
$149–)$159 0.236 Fib / EMA confluence(
)$169 0.382 Fib(
)$185 0.5 Fib(
)$201 0.618 Fib(
Support
$130–)$125 Range bottom(
$120–)$118 Local demand(
)$116 Fib 0 / Macro demand(
Summary
After a prolonged decline from the macro supply zone, SOL is forming a structured bottom. Although downside momentum has slowed and accumulation is underway, unless the price convincingly recovers above $149–), the overall structure remains corrective without a clear trend reversal. Until then, SOL may continue to fluctuate within a range during the rebound phase, with resistance overhead being significant.