Portugal blocks Polymarket for unlicensed operation and betting on political events

Source: Criptonoticias Original Title: Portugal blocks Polymarket Original Link: https://www.criptonoticias.com/comunidad/portugal-bloquea-polymarket/

Context

The Gaming Regulation and Inspection Service (SRIJ) of Portugal ordered the blocking of Polymarket, the cryptocurrency-based prediction markets platform.

According to local reports, the regulator considers the company’s activity to be illegal. This is because it does not hold an operational license in the country and allows bets on political events. A practice prohibited by national legislation.

The site has no authorization to accept bets in Portugal, and under the national legal system, it is not permitted to operate betting on political events or occurrences, whether domestic or international.

Unusual movements in electoral markets

The regulator’s decision was intensified after observing unusual movements in the markets related to the 2026 Portuguese presidential elections. Data reveals that the volume in these markets exceeded 120 million euros.

In particular, SRIJ detected that more than 4 million euros flowed into the platform in the hours prior to the official announcement of the first round results on January 18.

This raised alarms about possible insider trading (insider trading) and the leaking of exit polls. This is because the probabilities of candidates on Polymarket were adjusted with mathematical precision before the data was made public.

Regulatory pressures in other countries

This blockade is not an isolated case for Polymarket. The platform faces similar regulatory pressures in France, Singapore, Brazil, and Spain. There, authorities question the nature of these markets and their lack of compliance with local gambling regulations.

In fact, the use of this platform for predictions had already been under scrutiny by analysts. In December 2025, a user identified as “0xafEe” made profits exceeding $1.19 million through highly accurate bets on search trends. This reinforced suspicions of manipulation or access to private data in these markets.

Warning about fund recovery

Although Portugal maintains an open stance towards the Bitcoin ecosystem and the digital economy, SRIJ warned that it cannot guarantee the recovery of local users’ funds once the site is blocked by internet service providers (ISP).