Bitcoin short-term bullish vs long-term bearish, Willy Woo's conflicting outlooks

Cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo is optimistic about the short-term upward momentum of Bitcoin but maintains a pessimistic outlook on the market beyond 2026. In a recent analysis, he detailed the current situation where bullish and bearish signals coexist.

Signs of Price Recovery After December Bottom

According to Willy Woo’s internal investment fund flow model, Bitcoin has been on a steady upward trend since hitting a low on December 24. It typically takes 2-3 weeks for these fund flow changes to be reflected in actual prices, and currently, that process is underway. The liquidity in the futures market is also recovering after months of stagnation, resembling the pattern seen during the second peak of the mid-2021 cycle.

However, in the short term, overbought signals on the chart are constraining price increases.

Price Resistance Level: Can It Break Through $98,000?

The key point to watch is the resistance zone around $98,000 to $100,000. With Bitcoin currently trading around $89,320, whether it can break through this resistance is a critical benchmark. If it surpasses this level, the next target is expected to be the all-time high (ATH) of $126,080.

Willy Woo remains relatively positive about the price movement from late January to February.

Weakening Liquidity Sends a Signal: Possibility of a Bear Market in 2026

However, on a broader scale, signs of pessimism are emerging. Despite prices rising since January 2025, the supporting liquidity is actually weakening. This indicates that the current rally is proceeding without strong fund support, raising questions about its sustainability.

Willy Woo explained, “We are currently at the final stage of the upward trend, and there is a lack of sufficient liquidity to support it.” This structural weakness is central to his bearish outlook.

Fund Flows Could Divide the Market

To change the long-term outlook, a significant influx of spot (i.e., long-term ) liquidity is necessary. If such a shift in fund flows does not occur in the coming months, the current bearish scenario is likely to materialize.

An important point is that a bear market (bear market ) has not yet been confirmed. The final confirmation of a bear market will be indicated by continued outflows of funds from Bitcoin, serving as a lagging indicator after cycle highs. Currently, these worst-case signals have not yet appeared, and the scenario could change significantly depending on future fund flow changes.