2026-01-21 02:20:47

Give the core judgment: A 70%–80% deep bear market for Bitcoin is very unlikely.

Looking at Bitcoin’s more than ten-year trend on a long-term chart reveals an counterintuitive phenomenon—actual occurrences of 70%–80% declines are relatively rare, and each time they happen, they can be traced back to clear structural reasons. This is not a natural outcome of "bad market conditions" or "overly rapid gains," but rather a systemic deleveraging triggered when a financial system proves unsustainable.

Based on this logic, the probability of Bitcoin experiencing another systemic bear market of 70%–80%, similar to 2018 and 2022, is extremely low under current market conditions. What is a more realistic scenario? Unless a completely new, market-unrecognized, and unpriced credit crisis trigger suddenly appears, the more likely downward path is a 30%–50% structural retracement, accompanied by long-term time for space, repeated oscillations, and turnover, rather than a complete "reset to zero."

This judgment is not based on optimism, nor is it simply saying "this time is different." It stems from a more fundamental question: for an asset that is already highly globalized and widely held by institutional funds and allocation-based funds, what kind of forces are needed in the market to push it down 70%?

If this question cannot be answered, then whether "it will fall another 70%" becomes a question driven by emotion rather than a rational analysis.

BTC-0,02%

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BoredApeResistance

· 01-23 09:20

70% deep bear? Come on, unless there's a new systemic collapse, this is basically impossible. With institutions holding such large positions, unless a credit crisis that we didn't expect suddenly occurs, at most there will be 30-50% volatility. Don't keep shouting for zeroing out; ask yourself what reason there is for it to drop so sharply. Time buys space, and this is the norm.

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ShortingEnthusiast

· 01-22 09:52

You speak very firmly, but I still believe that a black swan can come at any time. I understand this logic, but when has the crypto market ever been free of surprises? 30-50% correction? Don't be naive, one message can cut it in half. Holding by institutions makes it stable? What about 2008? I agree with this framework, but the market is just so magical. Hmm... it's hard to say now, but when it drops, there will be another set of reasons. The core question is who the @TM@ knows, so it's better to take a gamble. Your analysis is interesting, but I still feel more secure holding a short position in my hand.

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GrayscaleArbitrageur

· 01-22 01:31

70% deep bear? Thinking too much, unless the system crashes, it's unlikely. Institutions have already entered the market; they can't clear that much volume. Historically, every major decline has had a clear reason. As of now, we haven't seen any credit crisis. I believe in a 30-50% retracement, but to wipe out 70%? Something really has to be broken.

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ApeEscapeArtist

· 01-21 02:49

Institutions are so heavily accumulating, indeed a 70% difficulty upgrade *** To put it simply, as long as there is no systemic collapse, don’t overthink about zeroing out *** A 30-50% retracement is acceptable, but 70%? The current holders are different now *** Repeated oscillations and turnover? That’s the market behavior I dislike the most, it’s exhausting *** The problem is good, but the key is when the credit crisis will come *** Institutions piling into this thing really support the market, admit it *** Not optimistic, but there’s no reason to be pessimistic; the logic holds *** A 30% drop? Then I’ll have to add to my position, haha

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down_only_larry

· 01-21 02:37

Basically, it's just that institutions are full; for it to drop 70%, there needs to be a major event. Otherwise, it's just repeated profit-taking.

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BlockchainDecoder

· 01-21 02:33

Looking at this logical deduction, it's quite interesting to infer the potential decline range based on institutional holdings. However, the problem is that during the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, major financial institutions also had substantial holdings, yet they still ended up collapsing. If we say that "globally diversified funds widely held" can prevent a sharp decline, that premise itself is questionable. So rather than saying a 70% difficulty is high, it's more about the insufficient ability to price black swan events.

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ContractExplorer

· 01-21 02:33

That's a valid point; institutional bottom-fishing ability has really changed the game rules. A 70% drop requires a systemic black swan; right now, it's too difficult to meet these conditions. It's not like retail markets ten years ago; no matter how much you dump, you can't push it down. I'm more inclined to believe in 30-50% fluctuations; wiping everything out is indeed difficult now. Honestly, the crypto circle isn't that fragile anymore; institutional players are too stable.

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WalletDoomsDay

· 01-21 02:28

That's right, 70% of deep bear markets indeed require a systemic collapse; currently, this ecosystem isn't that fragile. Institutions have entered the market, so it's not so easy to wipe everything out. Rather than worrying about a 50-70% cut, it's better to think about how to bottom out during a 30-50% pullback. The real crisis would be at the level of the financial system, not just a poor market condition. Anyway, I'm just waiting for the next wave of a credit crisis; when it comes, there's no hiding from it. Instead of worrying whether it will drop 70%, ask yourself how much your holdings can withstand. This logic makes sense; the data is there, and every major decline has a reason. Institutional funds are anchored, and retail investors can't shake this market even if they try. I think what we should be more concerned about is when the next trigger point will occur, rather than assuming it will never happen.

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Hash_Bandit

· 01-21 02:21

ngl, the 70-80% crash narrative has been beaten to death... institutional hodlers changed the game fr fr

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