ETH 3180: Want to buy the dip? First, check if your tea has cooled down.

January 20 / Heavy Snow / Wuhan

This Oolong tea, the first brew is too strong, only the second brew reveals the flavor.
Trading is the same.

The first wave of decline is deadly, like a knife; the second wave, when it grinds, is the real opportunity.

Right now, we are in this “second brew.” Bitter, not only tasteless but full of foam.

Just now, Lao Chen sent a voice message, loud and clear: “Lao Bao, $ETH 3180! Hold on! Should I go all in now? This is a once-in-a-lifetime chance to reverse and pick up the pieces!”

I replied to him: “Pull up your pants first.”

This is the common problem of retail investors: mistaking “sideways movement” for “bottoming,” and “bottoming” for “uptrend.”

The 4-hour chart indeed shows no further decline. But look carefully at the 15-minute chart—has the bulls entered?
No.

All that’s left are fragmented **“zombie K-lines”**, like an ECG line turned flat. What does this mean? It indicates that the main force has no intention of pushing the price up; they’ve just removed the sell orders, watching retail investors chop each other up inside.

Now, 3180 is just a **“slaughterhouse rest area”**.
If you rush in now, the likely outcome is: price rises—unable to go higher; price falls—another spike could come at any moment. What is the main force waiting for? An opportunity, perhaps the US stock market opening, or maybe some unlucky trader can’t resist and cuts losses first.

I don’t talk nonsense about this “garbage time.” I don’t bet on direction; I prepare for both.

Lao Bao’s dual-play script (for reference only, don’t blame me if you lose):
📜 Script One: Waiting for Longs
Core logic: The support level is too obvious now. If we don’t shake out the bottom-fishers at 3180, the weight is too heavy to lift.
⚔ Strategy: Lurk on the left side, catch the spike.
📍 Entry point: 3140 - 3155
Logic: Don’t fixate on 3160; we need to break the previous low to trigger retail stop-loss orders. That’s the main force’s accumulation zone.
🛡 Stop-loss: 3118
Logic: A significant break below 3120 indicates a true collapse, not just a shakeout. The faster you run, the better.
💰 Take profit: 3220 / 3260, exit in stages.

📜 Script Two: Short Snipe
Core logic: If the rebound is weak and a “Three Sell” structure appears in the Chan theory, it’s a trap for longs—short it!
⚔ Signal:
Rebound can’t break through the 3220-3230 resistance zone.
15-minute MACD shows a death cross below zero, with long upper shadows on the candles.
📍 Entry point: 3220 - 3230
Logic: Follow the trend and short, riding the wave of the rebound’s weakness and subsequent fall.
🛡 Stop-loss: 3270
Logic: Holding above 3270 indicates entering the upper consolidation zone, close short positions.
💰 Take profit:
T1: 3165, reduce positions near the previous low (
T2: 3120, gamble on a breakdown )

When fishing, erratic float movements often mean small fish are causing trouble.
The real big fish usually bites after a tap, then suddenly pulls the float under.
The current candles are still moving erratically—what are you in a hurry for?
The tea isn’t cooled yet; let the bullets fly a little longer.