#比特币2026年行情展望 Bitcoin $BTC｜Market Sentiment Reverses, Deleveraging Wave Approaches

Recently, market sentiment has undergone a dramatic shift. Between January 13–15, the Bitcoin advanced sentiment index surged to an extreme bullish zone of about 80%, with the price approaching a local peak near $97,000. However, within just a few days, this indicator system has collapsed—today, the index dropped to 44.9%, directly breaking below the 50% neutral threshold. This is not a minor fluctuation but indicates that market structure is being re-priced, with risk appetite accelerating its deterioration signals.

From a technical perspective, this sentiment index integrates multidimensional data such as volume-weighted average price, net active volume, open interest, and long-short differentials. A drop below the neutral line signifies a significant decline in market risk quality. If it continues downward to the high bearish zone at 20%, it could trigger a deeper correction. Only when the index re-enters above 50% and stabilizes at that level can it be considered the first sign of stabilization.

On-chain data further confirms this pressure. Early this morning, the hourly forced liquidation amount exceeded $205 million—a substantial figure. More importantly, the spot oscillation indicator rose to +97.96%, indicating that forced liquidations are almost entirely dominated by long positions. This suggests that what we are seeing is not some large traders actively dumping, but a typical automatic deleveraging triggered by overheated market crashes.

In the short-term trading, the key focus should be on the trend of forced liquidation volume in the next few hours. If the forced liquidation scale continues to decline, it indicates that the deleveraging process is nearing its end, and it may be time to start monitoring whether support levels are stabilizing. But before market risk appetite truly recovers, maintaining a wait-and-see approach or controlling positions remains the rational choice.