**Differences in Bitcoin and Ethereum Trends Under Two Scenarios: Central Bank Policy as a Key Variable**

According to the latest insights from market analysts, the Federal Reserve's policy direction in the first quarter of 2026 will be a decisive factor for the crypto asset market. If the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates, Bitcoin could face downward pressure to the $70,000 level, and Ethereum may also retrace to $2,400. Currently, BTC is trading at $93,180, and ETH at $3,220. If the aforementioned declines occur, they would represent a correction of over 25% and 25%, respectively.

**The Ghost of Quantitative Easing Returns: Invisible Easing Boosts Risk Assets**

A key turning point has occurred in the market. On December 1, the Federal Reserve officially ended quantitative tightening (QT) and shifted to the "Reserve Management Purchase Program" (RMPs), purchasing approximately $40 billion worth of short-term government bonds each month. Many market participants believe this essentially constitutes "hidden quantitative easing." The significance of this policy shift cannot be underestimated—it means liquidity is continuously being injected into the market.

**Price Targets and Fundamentals in an Optimistic Scenario**

Under the assumption that RMPs continue, Bitcoin could see more optimistic performance, with prices fluctuating between $92,000 and $98,000. Ethereum is expected to benefit from the maturity of Layer-2 scaling solutions and the increasing attractiveness of the DeFi ecosystem, with a target price potentially reaching $3,600.

The driving forces behind this upward trend are not only policy support but also ongoing institutional capital inflows. Over the past few months, net inflows into ETF products have exceeded $50 billion, and continuous accumulation by institutional investors has provided a solid foundation for the market. This increase in capital concentration often signals stronger upward momentum.

**Conclusion: Policy Expectations Become the Focus for Traders**

The performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum in the first quarter depends on whether the Federal Reserve truly shifts to a liquidity injection mode. Based on current market pricing, participants have already partially priced in bullish scenarios. Monitoring changes in policy signals around key technical levels such as 120.05 will be the next core task.