#美联储降息预期升温 Overnight, the market was caught off guard.

At first glance, it seemed like ordinary fluctuations, but beneath the surface, currents were surging. The White House has been acting frequently, from personnel changes at the central bank to territorial claims—each step reshaping the global financial order—and the crypto market has long become a barometer of this game.

**The Independence of the Federal Reserve Is Fading**

Personnel changes are happening rapidly. The competition for the next Fed chair has dramatically shifted, with former Trump economic advisors largely out of the picture, replaced by a rising hawkish faction. What does this mean? The decision-making space for the next Fed chair may be increasingly constrained by political factors.

The most direct reflection is in the expectations of rate cuts—probability of a rate cut in March has fallen from previous expectations to 20.7%, and market certainty about future policies has been completely lost. More critically, the pace of dollar liquidity release is no longer dictated by economic data but is now being determined by the political agenda.

**Geopolitical Tensions Are Escalating**

On the other side, developments are also accelerating. Statements about Greenland are no longer just probing but are clear threats—support or opposition to US claims are directly linked to trade tariffs. This has gone beyond traditional trade wars, touching on the security framework of NATO as a whole since World War II. The line of territorial integrity of allies has been publicly challenged.

Europe has no room for maneuver; internal discussions are already considering various response plans. The rift in the transatlantic alliance could be the deepest in decades.

**Why These Two Events Are Disrupting the Crypto Market**

An independent central bank and stable geopolitical alliances are the cornerstones of global asset pricing. Once these cornerstones shake, all risk assets need to be revalued.

Deeper still is the reversal of liquidity logic. A Fed more influenced by politics means the probability of flooding government debt increases significantly. Inflation expectations will be reshaped, and the cost of credit for the dollar will rise. Large funds will have to reprice all risk positions, including crypto assets.

What lies ahead is the gray area where the old order is collapsing, and the new order has yet to be established. The pillar of independent central banks is wavering, and the multilateral security framework is also disintegrating. Under this high level of uncertainty, the volatility of assets like $AXS, $ZEN, and $DASH will continue to rise.

The real test has only just begun.