#2026币圈Flag

A few thoughts over the weekend.
Market narrative system collapse: from "US dollar peg" to "everyone fighting their own battles"
Over the past decade, the global asset pricing anchor has been clear and unified—the movement of the US dollar almost determines everything: when the dollar rises, risk assets, precious metals, and non-US currencies all come under pressure; when the dollar falls, various assets enter a broad rally; even during occasional safe-haven runs, the fixed script of "dollar + US bonds + gold rising together, risk assets declining" remains unavoidable.

But last week's market completely shattered this inertia. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped to 198,000, far exceeding market expectations of strong employment data. Coupled with hawkish statements from three Federal Reserve officials, in the past, this would have supported a stronger dollar and triggered a broad decline in assets. However, the reality was that the market ignored the Fed's "interest rate hike signals," and assets showed clear divergence: some safe-haven assets remained resilient, some growth sectors defied the trend and rose, and the traditional "unified narrative" was completely invalidated.

The core reason behind this lies in the restructuring of the global economic landscape and market pricing factors. On one hand, the tug-of-war between the US economy's "strong employment" and "soft landing" expectations has decreased market sensitivity to Fed policies; on the other hand, the rise of multiple variables such as geopolitical conflicts and industrial upgrades makes it difficult for a single currency factor to dominate the pricing logic of all assets.

For investors, this means the era of "lying flat" broad rallies and declines is over. Structural opportunities will become the main theme of future markets: abandoning obsession with a single anchor indicator and focusing on the independent driving factors behind different assets is key to navigating the current market.