Silver market under pressure: XAG/USD consolidates around $80.00 – macro data drives the rate

Silver is trading at around $80.15 in Asian markets with slight downward pressure. The current consolidation reflects mainly the wait-and-see attitude of market participants ahead of a data-rich week – with the US ISM Services PMI on Wednesday and December employment data on Friday in focus. Below this level, however, a clear safety net is forming: geopolitical tensions and interest rate cut expectations are supporting the downside.

Technical Consolidation Ahead of Key US Events

The silver price (XAG/USD) is moving around the $80.15 mark in the Asian session, recording moderate profit-taking after the recent recovery phase. This pattern is typical before major economic releases: the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index is due on Wednesday, followed by the December Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report (Non-Farm Payrolls) on Friday. Such data can trigger volatility jumps and therefore lead to defensive positioning.

Fed Policy in Focus: Rate Cut Expectations Limit Losses

Downside potential remains limited as long as market participants expect a looser monetary policy. According to CME FedWatch data, the Fed Funds Futures for the January 27/28 meeting price in about an 82% chance of unchanged interest rates – but speculation about future reductions is also growing. Analysts from AktivTrades point out that this mix of factors further supports traditional safe-haven assets like silver. In the context of a fragile global economic situation and rising geopolitical uncertainty, other safe assets like the Swiss franc (in the Swiss Franc Forecast 2025) also show strength, underscoring the fundamental trust in commodities and currencies.

Venezuela Crisis Boosts Safe-Haven Demand

An additional driver for flight-to-safety demand is the escalating situation in Venezuela. The US conducted military operations on Saturday and announced that President Nicolás Maduro and his wife have been arrested and taken out of the country. Maduro denied the allegations on Monday before a US court in a case involving drug financing charges. Such geopolitical escalations typically lead to increased demand for safe assets – silver benefits from this flight-to-safety scenario.

NFP Surprises Could Turn the Tide

The key catalyst comes on Friday: the US employment report. Expectations are for 55,000 new jobs in December; the unemployment rate is expected to fall from 4.6% (November) to 4.5%. A significantly stronger jobs report would support the US dollar and, as a reflex, put short-term pressure on silver, as commodities are quoted in USD. Conversely, weaker data could reignite rate cut expectations and push silver higher again.