Gold in 2025-2026: From Possibility to Reality - Why Is the Trend Strong?

End of 2025 is a pivotal time for the gold market. Gold prices have surged past the psychological threshold of $4,000 per ounce, refusing to retreat even slightly, and on October 20, 2025, hit an all-time high of $4,181 per ounce. Compared to the beginning of the year, gold’s value has increased by 66% in just 7 months.

For investors in Thailand, 96.5% gold bars have already surpassed 62,000 THB, deviating from the original target of 55,000 THB. This is a clear signal that the upward trend in gold prices is driven by deeper factors beyond mere numbers.

Why is this happening: Changing Global Market Structure

Looking back approximately 14 months, from $3,000 to $4,000, gold took only 7 months. This acceleration is not coincidental but results from the convergence of multiple factors causing market participants—from central banks to individual investors—to seek safe-haven assets.

###Ongoing Trade Tensions

Trade conflicts between major powers have escalated into a crisis. President Trump announced plans to impose a 100% tariff on imports from China, effective November 1, 2025. China responded by expanding controls on exports of rare minerals and technology. These conflicts create global economic uncertainty and are a key reason why gold has become a trusted asset for investors.

###Monetary Policy: Rate Cuts Create Opportunities

The US Federal Reserve ((Fed)) has begun a rate-cutting cycle, reducing rates by 0.25% in September 2025, with signals of further cuts. Lower interest rates weaken the dollar, making gold more attractive to holders of other currencies. Additionally, the opportunity cost of holding gold— which yields no interest—has decreased significantly.

(Global Central Banks Accumulating Gold Like Never Before

This is one of the most critical factors. Central banks from emerging markets have been net buyers of over 1,000 tons of gold annually for three consecutive years ()2023-2025###), and this trend continues in 2025. The global gold reserves now stand at around 36,699 tons—the highest in decades.

The reason behind this is de-dollarization: the process of reducing reliance on the US dollar, which intensified after 2022 when Russian central bank assets were frozen. Many countries recognize the risks of over-dependence on a single currency.

(BRICS and International Currency Reform

News indicates that BRICS is studying the issuance of a digital currency backed by gold for use in inter-member trade. This is a serious challenge to the US dollar’s dominance. The increased role of gold supports long-term demand from large institutions.

Wall Street Signals: Everyone is Buying

)Goldman Sachs Raises Target to $4,900

This major Wall Street firm has revised its gold price target to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, up from the previous $4,300. Analyst Lina Thomas states that the main drivers are strong central bank demand and inflows into gold ETFs. For 2025, Goldman Sachs expects the price to reach $3,300 ((up from $2,890)), driven by higher-than-expected central bank buying.

###UBS Sees Central Bank Accumulation as Main Driver

Swiss banking giant UBS forecasts gold reaching $3,500 per ounce by December 2025. UBS strategist Joni Teves explains that the pattern of central bank gold purchases this year is unprecedented in history.

###Thai Financial Institutions See Opportunities at 75,000-80,000 THB

Using international targets to estimate Thai gold prices at 96.5%, the price could reach 75,000–80,000 THB per baht of gold by 2026. Although some profit-taking corrections may occur along the way, the overall trend remains bullish.

Variables That Could Cause Gold to Fall: Watch for Warning Signs

While the outlook is positive, certain scenarios could change the game:

Successful Trade Negotiations: If the US and China reach an agreement, trade uncertainty will decrease, and investors might reduce their gold holdings as a safe haven.

Profit-Taking Selling Pressure: After a rapid rise over 8 weeks, investors may start selling gradually to lock in profits, especially if RSI signals overbought conditions ((Overbought)).

Dollar Recovery: If the US economy outperforms expectations and the Fed delays rate cuts, the dollar could strengthen, putting downward pressure on gold prices.

High Interest Rates: If inflation remains stubbornly high, the Fed may keep interest rates elevated longer than expected, reducing gold’s appeal due to its lack of yield.

Technical Signals for Traders

###Price Surge### Indicates Genuine Buying

Gold prices jumped over $250 per ounce within a few days, signaling strong buying momentum and suggesting the trend could continue.

(High RSI Indicates Overbought, But Not Necessarily a Reversal

RSI for gold is in overbought territory ()Overbought###). However, in a strong trend, RSI can stay high for extended periods, indicating the bullish momentum remains intact.

(Public Participation: Market Absorbing Positivity

According to market theory, gold appears to be in a phase of increased public participation ()Public Participation###). When positive news and fundamentals encourage large players to buy, prices often continue upward.

Trading Strategies for the Current Situation

( 1. “Buy the Dip” - Enter on Pullbacks

Although the trend is bullish, prices have risen rapidly. Wait for a retracement to key support levels:

• Wait for a correction to the first support at $3,859 or the minimum support at $3,782.
• Confirm RSI near 50 or MACD showing a reversal signal.
• Set stop-loss below $3,750.
• Target price: $4,100–$4,150.

) 2. “Breakout Retest” - Confirm Breakout

Once price breaks above $4,000 resistance, the previous resistance becomes support:

• Wait for a retracement to test support at $3,980–$4,000.
• Check for increased volume and bullish candlestick patterns.
• Enter on positive reversal signals, with a stop-loss at $3,950.
• Target price: $4,150–$4,200.

3. “Fibonacci Retracement” - Use Fibonacci Levels for Support

Draw Fibonacci retracement from the recent low around $3,500 to the recent high at $4,059:

• Look for buy signals at 38.2% or 61.8% retracement levels.
• Enter when price approaches these levels and shows reversal signs.
• Set stop-loss below the next Fibonacci level.
• Target: Break previous high.

Conclusion: Gold Will Remain Strong

This year’s gold price indicates that the global market structure is changing. Central bank and institutional demand for safe assets, trade tensions, and rate cuts all point in the same direction: Gold will continue to be strongly driven.

For Thai investors hesitant to wait for 75,000–80,000 THB, it’s advisable to assess and plan during short-term consolidations. This period may see a “gold sell-off” due to profit-taking. If you can buy back at lower prices, it could be a good opportunity for medium- to long-term investors.

Most importantly: always establish disciplined trading signals, set stop-loss points, and remember that gold is a highly volatile asset. Even with a bullish outlook, unexpected “gold drops” can occur.