Resistance between $4,600-4,605: Gold hits bullish signals but RSI issues still need to be addressed.

Geopolitical Tensions Continue to Drive Gold Buying

The temporary situation in Venezuela, news of military threats against Iran, the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and tensions between East Asia all contribute to investors turning away from risky assets and flowing into safe-haven assets. Gold benefits greatly from this flight-to-safety trend, setting new session highs in Asia at $4,600 per ounce.

The US Dollar’s Weakness Helps End Stagnation, but Jobs Data Falls Short of Expectations

Market concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have caused the dollar to fall from its highest levels since December 5. However, last week’s employment data painted a different picture — only 50,000 new jobs were added, below the forecast of 60,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 4.4%, down from 4.6% previously. This data led markets to reduce expectations of interest rate cuts in 2026, which in turn fueled demand for gold as a safe haven.

Iran, Ukraine, and China-Japan Issues Still in Market Focus

The violent crackdown on protesters in Iran, with over 500 casualties, combined with Ukraine’s drone attacks and Russia’s missile responses near NATO borders, continue to fuel concerns. Meanwhile, China has taken a short-term stance to restrict exports of rare minerals to Japan amid diplomatic tensions over Taiwan. All these factors contribute to a risk environment that favors cautious assessment.

Fed States Decision Depends on Independence Assessment, Not Preference

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell clarified that legal threats against him do not influence the Fed’s policy outlook. The structure of interest rate setting is solely focused on public interest. However, official statements and actions will influence the central bank’s policy trajectory.

Short-Term Need to Release Overbought RSI

Technical Outlook indicates that gold prices are rising along a clear breakout channel. Several technical signals, such as MACD trending upward and the 200-day SMA reinforcing a positive trend, support further gains. However, the RSI at 71.82 suggests overbought conditions, which could trigger a short-term correction to ease upward pressure.

Support for Resistance Amid an Uptrend

The resistance level of the breakout channel is around $4,365, with the upward-sloping 200-day SMA acting as a dynamic support. Holding above these levels will help maintain the bullish trend, while breaking through the channel resistance could open the door for further upward movement.

Focus This Week: Inflation Data and US Dollar Sentiment

No major US economic releases are scheduled from Monday, so currency and gold movements will follow the views of Fed policymakers. The key focus for the week is on US inflation figures, which will further influence the central bank’s policy outlook.