Gold hits a new all-time high of 4600! The market secrets behind the Powell controversy

Monday (January 12) Gold prices showed strong momentum, surging significantly during the session and approaching 2%, ultimately closing at $4,601, successfully breaking through the psychological level of $4,600 and hitting a new all-time high. Behind this rally are multiple driving factors worth in-depth analysis for investors.

Policy Turmoil Sparks Market Turbulence

According to a January 11 report from The New York Times, the U.S. District Attorney’s Office in Washington, D.C., has launched a criminal investigation into the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell regarding the renovation of the Fed’s Washington headquarters. This move has caused ripples in the market, with market participants generally concerned that this incident could impact the Fed’s policy independence.

Powell responded subsequently, emphasizing that the Federal Reserve will continue to set interest rate policies based on evidence and economic data, and will not be swayed by political pressure. He pointed out that the threats from the new government are unrelated to his testimony or renovation projects, fundamentally reflecting whether the Federal Reserve remains independent.

Geopolitical Tensions Rise Supporting Safe-Haven Demand

The worsening geopolitical situation has also driven up gold prices. According to The Wall Street Journal, U.S. officials revealed that Trump is scheduled to receive a briefing on Iran’s situation on January 13, and the U.S. may be planning possible responses. Against this backdrop, demand for safe-haven assets among investors has noticeably increased.

Trump’s Three Main Methods to Pressure Interest Rates

Market observers note that the Trump administration is exerting pressure on real interest rates through multiple channels. First, the “Big and Beautiful” tax law aims to stimulate economic growth and boost inflation to dilute debt burdens; second, the ALL IN AI strategy targets technological innovation to drive growth; third, geopolitical turmoil has increased demand for U.S. Treasury safe-haven assets. These factors collectively point to a goal of lowering real interest rates. This approach is reminiscent of the strategies the U.S. used post-World War II to manage debt, with the cost being dollar depreciation and structural increases in commodities like energy and metals—LFG行情 indicates market expectations for this long-term trend.

Positive Signals from Labor Data

Last Friday (January 9), the U.S. Department of Labor released December non-farm payroll data, showing only 50,000 new jobs, below the market expectation of 60,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.4%, and hourly wage growth rebounded. This data suggests that while the labor market shows signs of cooling, it is not deteriorating sharply. Traders have consequently pushed back the Fed’s first rate cut window to June.

Market reactions were swift— the dollar index fell below 99.0 to 98.89, and the Nasdaq 100 index dropped 0.55% intraday. Notably, although the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 5 basis points to 3.53%, the 10-year Treasury yield spiked and then retreated, highlighting a divergence that underscores downward pressure on long-term interest rates.

Technical Insights for Investment

The daily chart of gold shows a series of higher highs, indicating that the medium-term upward trend remains intact. If gold can stabilize above $4,600, the subsequent rebound could extend toward $4,800 or even $5,000. Investors should focus on technical key points around January 23. The medium-term support/resistance boundary is estimated at $4,309; if this support holds, the bullish outlook remains unchanged.

Recent Risks to Watch

On Tuesday (January 13), the U.S. December CPI data will be released as scheduled. Market consensus predicts inflation remains high, which will reinforce the Fed’s decision to pause rate cuts in January. Additionally, the risk of a U.S. government shutdown before the end of the month warrants attention—Congress passed three government funding bills on January 8, extending government funding until January 30, but uncertainties remain.

Overall, the new high in gold reflects policy uncertainties and investor concerns over long-term inflation and asset devaluation. Amid these intertwined factors, strategic allocation in commodities is gradually becoming an important hedge for investment portfolios.