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Technical Analysis Tutorial: Mastering the Key Positions of the Four Major Trading Pairs
Market Background and Overall Situation
Driven by the performance of tech stocks, the US stock market has recently shown strong momentum, while the US Dollar Index has retreated from highs amid geopolitical risk catalysts. In this context, the forex and crypto markets have performed differently, and investors should stay alert to technical signals across various trading pairs. This analysis covers USD/JPY, EUR/USD, NZD/USD, and Ethereum, helping traders grasp key support and resistance levels.
USD/JPY: 157.0 Becomes a Key Resistance, Breakout Requires Caution
USD/JPY fell 0.28% last Friday, reaching a low of 156.11. Notably, this pair has repeatedly faced resistance at the 157.0 level over the past month and a half, indicating unusually strong overhead resistance.
Technical Outlook: If a rebound is blocked at 157.0, subsequent tests may target support at 155.0 and even 152.0. To reverse the weak trend, a break above 158.0 is necessary to establish potential for new highs.
Key Levels to Watch
EUR/USD: 1.1770 as a Reversal Key
EUR/USD rebounded from a low last Friday, briefly breaking below 1.1700 to 1.1659, then recovered all intraday losses, closing up 0.02%. Although temporarily stabilizing around 1.1700, whether the recent downtrend can truly reverse depends on whether 1.1770 can be effectively reclaimed.
Technical Outlook: If a rebound is again blocked at 1.1770, the pair may retest support at 1.1700 and even 1.1630. Conversely, if it can recover and hold above 1.1770, the medium-term bullish trend could continue, targeting the 1.2 level.
Key Levels to Watch
NZD/USD: Key Support Reached, Uptrend Confirmed
NZD/USD rose 0.36% last Friday, reaching a high of 0.5791. Notably, this pair has re-established itself above the Gann 2/1 line at 0.5770, suggesting that the overall upward momentum remains intact.
Technical Outlook: If a clear break above 0.5800 occurs, the market may rebound further to challenge 0.5870 and even 0.5900. To reverse the uptrend, a drop below 0.5730 is needed to confirm a correction.
Key Levels to Watch
Ethereum: Five Consecutive Days of Gains to Monthly High, Bullish Signal Clear
Ethereum increased 2.61% last Friday, reaching a high of $3,264.6, hitting a new monthly high. It has now risen for five consecutive days, indicating growing bullish sentiment. Latest data shows Ethereum’s current price at $3.35K, with a 24-hour increase of +1.88%.
Technical Outlook: If Ethereum can break above $3,270, it is likely to further rebound toward $3,400 and even $3,600. To reverse the upward trend, a drop below $3,000 is needed to confirm a correction.
Key Levels to Watch
Technical Analysis Teaching Points
When making trading decisions, focus on three aspects: repeated testing of support and resistance levels (the more times a level is tested, the more valid it becomes), trend confirmation signals (more consecutive days of gains or losses strengthen the trend), and price-position relationships (breakouts or breakdowns should be accompanied by volume). In this analysis, NZD/USD and Ethereum show clearer upward momentum, while USD/JPY and EUR/USD are at critical junctures, warranting close monitoring of their future performance.