2024 US CPI Release Schedule and Trend Analysis: Essential Inflation Indicators for Investors

Pre-judging the US CPI Trend in 2024: Clear Three-Stage Divergence

What is the outlook for US CPI in 2024? Based on forecasts from multiple institutions, the answer is not simply a “one-sided decline.” According to the latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global inflation will drop to 5.8% in 2024, but US economic growth is expected to reach 2.1%, ranking second among major global economies. This balance between growth and inflation determines that US CPI in 2024 will show a clear three-phase trend: bottoming out in Q1, rebounding in Q2, and declining in the second half of the year.

The logic behind this judgment is: in the first half of 2023, commodities experienced oscillating downward trends, leading to a low base effect in the first half of 2024, so US CPI will not continue to fall rapidly. Meanwhile, crude oil inventories continue to decline, supporting oil prices; geopolitical conflicts (especially the Red Sea crisis) push up shipping costs. These factors all point to the possibility of inflationary pressure rebounding in the first half.

US CPI Release Schedule: Grasp the Trading Window

As one of the most critical economic indicators globally, the timing of US CPI releases often triggers sharp asset price fluctuations. The reason is simple: CPI is released before US PCE data, which is an important reference for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. The Fed’s decisions directly influence the pricing of major global assets, so markets pay close attention to CPI data.

US CPI Release Schedule in 2024 (Taiwan Time):

Special Reminder: US CPI data is usually released on the first working day of each month or the closest working day. During daylight saving time (April to October), the release time is 20:30 Taiwan time; during standard time (November to March), it is 21:30.

Understanding US CPI: Three Layers of Core Indicators

Investors often get confused by various derivative indicators when analyzing US CPI data. In fact, the market mainly needs to focus on two core indicators:

Core CPI vs Overall CPI: What’s the difference?

Overall CPI includes price changes across all consumer items, which means it is heavily influenced by volatile food and energy prices. Core CPI excludes these two categories, providing a more accurate reflection of the actual price trend of goods and services. In simple terms, core CPI is more stable and better reflects the true inflationary pressure in the economy.

US CPI vs US PCE: Which is more important?

The fundamental difference lies in their calculation methods: CPI uses Laspeyres weighting, while PCE uses chained weighting. The latter better captures substitution effects—when oil prices surge, consumers switch to other energy sources. PCE reduces the weight of oil to smooth out fluctuations, thus more accurately reflecting real inflation.

In terms of release timing, US CPI is released earlier, thus having a greater market impact; but from a decision-making perspective, the Fed places more emphasis on PCE data because it is more scientific. For investors, monitoring both indicators is advisable, but understanding that they usually move in the same direction is key.

Month-over-month vs Year-over-year: Which to focus on?

Year-over-year compares the current data with the same period last year, effectively eliminating seasonal factors and more stably reflecting actual price trends. Investors should primarily focus on the annual rate data.

Composition of US CPI: Which Items Are Most Worth Tracking?

The weight structure of US CPI determines which sectors’ price changes have the greatest impact:

• Housing Rent (30-40%) — Highest weight
• Food & Beverages (13-15%) — Second highest
• Education & Communication (6-7%)
• Energy (6-8%)
• Medical Care (7-9%)
• Transportation Services (5-6%)
• New Vehicles (3-5%) and used cars (2-3%)
• Recreation & Entertainment (3-5%)
• Apparel & Clothing (2-3%)

Investors can see that housing and food together account for over 40%, making them key areas for analysis.

Drivers of US CPI Changes in 2024

Driver 1: Policy Uncertainty in the US Election Year

The US presidential election will be held in November 2024. Regardless of which party wins, candidates tend to make excessive promises of policy benefits during the campaign. Coupled with the current complex international environment, this may lead politicians to externalize domestic conflicts—intensifying geopolitical tensions and accelerating de-globalization. The ultimate result is rising import costs and difficulty in achieving smooth price declines.

Driver 2: Market Expectations for the Fed’s Rate Cut Pace

According to data from CME Group, the market most likely predicts a 6-basis-point (0.75%) rate cut by the Fed in 2024. This expectation implies that the market believes US inflation will trend downward throughout the year, aligning with our view of “bottoming in Q1 and generally declining for the year.” However, a rebound in Q2 could disrupt this expectation and potentially delay the Fed’s rate cut.

Historical Perspective: Four CPI Cycles in the Past 30 Years

Since the 1990s, US CPI has experienced four major cycles of sharp rises and falls, each corresponding to different economic events:

First (July 1990 - March 1991): Savings and loan crisis and Gulf War caused oil prices to surge, leading to recession and CPI decline.

Second (September 2000 - October 2001): Dot-com bubble burst and 9/11 attacks hit the economy, causing CPI to fall.

Third (January 2008 - June 2009): Subprime mortgage crisis triggered rapid CPI decline amid recession.

Fourth (March 2020 – present): COVID-19 pandemic caused short-term economic stagnation, leading to a quick CPI drop. Subsequently, massive Fed stimulus pushed CPI sharply higher until June 2022. As the pandemic eased and global logistics recovered, CPI has been declining since late 2022.

Key insight: Global logistics conditions have a far greater impact on US CPI than previously imagined. The recent Red Sea crisis again confirms this—Houthi attacks caused shipping rerouting, with Eurasian route freight rates doubling since early December 2023. Although the impact is less severe than during the second wave of COVID-19 in 2020 or the “Ever Given” blockage in 2021, regional logistics disruptions will gradually transmit to consumer prices and warrant ongoing monitoring.

Practical Advice for Investors

The core logic for US CPI trends in 2024 is: Strong economic resilience + geopolitical conflicts + policy uncertainty = inflation unlikely to decline unilaterally. Investors should:

1. Pay close attention to the CPI release dates listed above and prepare trading strategies a day in advance.
2. Monitor both core CPI and annual rate data simultaneously; don’t be misled by monthly fluctuations.
3. Be especially alert in Q2 for potential inflation rebound, which could alter the Fed’s rate cut expectations.
4. Track global logistics costs, especially developments in the Red Sea situation, as these are hidden inflation drivers.
5. US stock investors should recognize that if CPI remains sticky above expectations, the Fed may delay rate cuts, exerting pressure on equities.

In short, the US CPI release in 2024 will be a key market turning point. Mastering the release schedule and understanding the data composition are essential to finding trading opportunities amid volatility.