Will Silver Break Below $75.79? Technical Signals Flash Warning on XAG/USD Price Forecasts

XAG/USD is flashing red signals as the precious metal struggles to hold above critical support levels, raising questions about silver price predictions and the depth of the ongoing correction. Trading at $75.98 on Thursday, the metal has surrendered much of the week’s optimism, sliding from Wednesday’s highs near $83.00 to test the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently sitting at $75.79.

The Shift in Market Narrative

The geopolitical backdrop—including US involvement in Venezuela and China-Japan tensions—has faded into the background. Traders are now fixated on a more pressing catalyst: Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report and the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. This shift in focus has drained some buying interest from precious metals, allowing sellers to regain control after a promising start to the week.

Technical Deterioration Signals Deeper Downside Risk

The technical picture has deteriorated noticeably. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled to 46, indicating momentum is fading fast. More concerning is the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), which has crossed below its signal line and turned negative, with a deepening histogram suggesting conviction behind the selling pressure.

These indicators paint a troubling scenario: if the $75.79 SMA support breaks definitively, bears could push XAG/USD toward the late December lows near $70.50. Until then, buyers will need to reclaim the $78.00 resistance area to reopen the path toward Wednesday’s high around $82.80 and the all-time high of $85.87.

What This Means for Silver Price Predictions

The current correction reflects a broader market reassessment, not panic selling. However, momentum indicators suggest the downside risk is real. Silver traders watching medium-term price forecasts should monitor whether the 50-period SMA holds as a floor—if it fails, expect an acceleration lower in the sessions ahead.