Ask all veteran players a question: Have you ever experienced that kind of investment situation where "things look like they're about to turn around, but then you take a wrong step and fall into a ditch"? Especially for friends holding SHIB, you might already be feeling it now. The market trend of this coin indeed can drag people back from fantasies of getting rich overnight.

A couple of days ago, I received feedback from a fan whose story immediately reminded me of the crazy market in 2021. The guy invested 1,000 yuan in SHIB back then, and his account gradually grew to 50,000. At that time, he was impulsive and thought, "Such an awesome coin, it’s more than ten times, at least," and didn’t sell a single coin. Then the market suddenly reversed, and he was unwilling to accept it, so he threw in another 20,000 to buy the dip, hoping to grab a big bargain. But what happened? He got stuck halfway up the mountain. Now his account only has 5,000 yuan left, trapped for years, and every day the first thing he does upon waking is watch the market. His mentality is on the verge of collapse. But he still comforts himself, thinking, "This position is finally at a low point, I will turn around sooner or later."

Don’t rush to judge, and don’t scold yourself for being stupid. Such situations are common across the entire crypto market. The real problem isn’t choosing the wrong coin, but falling into two traps—sunk cost fallacy and cycle misjudgment.

Nobel laureate in Economics, Daniel Kahneman, has studied that humans feel twice as much pain from losses as they do pleasure from gains. This explains why some people are reluctant to take profits when their holdings reach 50,000, but after a decline, they dare to keep adding to their positions. They think, "As long as I don’t sell, I haven’t truly lost on paper," and then start averaging down, hoping to turn things around at an average price. But often, the more they buy, the deeper they sink, ultimately getting trapped tightly.

Looking at SHIB’s own rhythm, as a once-popular community coin, it has its own cyclical patterns. To understand what truly signals a "bottom rebound" versus what is just a "dead cat bounce," you need to combine overall market sentiment and technical analysis. But most people’s problem is that, overwhelmed by psychological pressure from losses, their judgment becomes severely impaired. They see every rise as a chance to turn things around, but in reality, they have long lost the ability to analyze objectively.

So what should you do? First, acknowledge a fact on a psychological level: money already lost won’t come back just because you glance at the chart a few more times. Second, have a clear understanding of the current market cycle. Lastly, learn when to cut losses and when it’s truly a good opportunity to allocate. This doesn’t mean you must sell at a loss, but rather make decisions rationally instead of being driven by emotions.